Thread by @AlmingtonCap

1/ Thread on Starlink, @SpaceX's proposed satellite constellation. This is the program that's eventually supposed to pay all the bills and fund its Mars mission. Yet, according to Gwynne Shotwell, it might not happen at all. $TSLA $TSLAQ

Our full article:
seekingalpha.com/article/425491…

2/ While it costs nothing to dream about a future manned Mars mission, actually undertaking one will. According to the National Research Council, a manned Mars mission would carry a hefty $220 billion price-tag. $TSLA $TSLAQ #SpaceX
nap.edu/resource/18801…

3/ SpaceX remains unprofitable & it knows that launching satellites for government & commercial customers can neither provide the cash necessary to fund its ambition of space exploration, nor justify its eye-watering $30 billion valuation. $TSLA $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/422188…

4/ This is where Starlink comes in. The first satellites are meant to be operational by next year, with aggressive expansion to follow. In 2015, SpaceX estimated that, by 2025, Starlink would be generating $30 billion in annual revenue from 40 million subscribers. $TSLA $TSLAQ

5/ So it's very strange that Shotwell is now questioning Starlink's feasibility:

"It’s worthy of the hard thought and the hard work we’re putting into it. But is it feasible with our approach or not? It’s still [to be determined].”

$TSLA $TSLAQ

wsj.com/articles/space…

6/ That's a far cry from 2015 and SpaceX's promise of endless Starlink profits. It is doubly strange to make such an admission in the midst of yet another capital raise, which aims to bring in up to $510 million. $TSLA $TSLAQ
sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse…

7/ Adding to Starlink’s troubles is $AMZN, which is now planning to launch its own constellation of more than 3,000 satellites to serve the same space. And, as is his wont, Elon taunted Bezos as a copycat when the news broke. $TSLA $TSLAQ

8/ Bezos has already hired several top @SpaceX engineers, including Starlink managers who Musk had fired, reportedly due to their slow progress. It sounds like they could be getting the last laugh, if Shotwell's comments are to be believed.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
cnbc.com/2019/04/07/ama…

9/ Without Starlink, @SpaceX would be just one more capital-intensive space launch business facing stiffening competition, hefty operating losses, and an uncertain future. Elon can only keep this hype train going for so long. $TSLA $TSLAQ

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seekingalpha.com/article/425491…