Thread by @TomaszRolbiecki

#Map: #ISIS activity in the last 3 months (Heatmap). About 100 hours of work during these 90 days, but totally worth it.

Link: bit.ly/2GqZZ3r

As in most of the heatmaps, red area = high activity. Blue = there was something.

More information below.

Euphrates Valley south of Deir ez-Zor remains the main area of ISIS attacks. Red area in and near Baghuz is from, obviously, the SDF offensive in January and February. After the territorial defeat there only Hajin witnessed any attacks (three, to be exact).

Regarding the area NW of Hajin, despite SDF's best wishes (and counterterrorism campaigns) the threat still persists. The people knowing more about it say it's closely related to the local tribes, whom they are/were supporting etc.

There weren't many places in northern Iraq where ISIS attacked very often, most of them witnessed less than 3 attacks. There were multiple attacks within the same areas, so it's not a big consolation.

I think I said it once before, but it's interesting to see much less acitivity from ISIS in Kirkuk. I didn't follow the situation there (work and stuff) and apart from the campaign in Hamrin area I don't know enough. In the next months we'll see if it was just a hibernation.

A similar situation we can see in Salah ad-Din, Diyala and north of Baghdad. Khanaqin and Waqf areas of Diyala province are some of the exceptions. Both have been under the radar for some time, a local politician said some of the villages in Waqf are ISIS safe havens.

In my opinion the situation in Anbar right now can be compared to the one when AQI/ISI moved to Diyala - it was the start of the "rebellion" in late 2013/early 2014, but now not too active. Even in Fallujah (not shown here) ISIS claimed *only* a handful of attacks.

In "Wilayah Khorasan" ISIS retains its base in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces, also being active in Khost, Kabul and in Pakistan. In Kabul and Jalalabad there were some big-scale attacks, mostly inghimasi. ISIS in Afghanistan is actively fighting both Afghan Army and the Taliban.

ISIS claims in Philippines are from Sulu, Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur provinces. Most of "East Asia Wilayah" claims are more of the defensive nature (clashes against the Army), but there were also some attacks, like a double suicide bombing in Jolo in late January.

ISIS in West Africa has witnessed many changes (including in leadership) and a new offensive from MNJTF. There was also a number of suicide attacks - not seen in a long time, though targeting mainly military.

As the result of the new MNJTF offensive, ISWAP started more attacks in Cameroon and Niger.

The most important change though is recognizing ISGS (active in Mali, SW Niger and Burkina Faso) by the central leadership as part of "Wilayah West Africa".

It's not a game changer, but I think we can see now how the ISIS plan for this part of the world looks like. Add the rumors about ISWAP setting up a cell in Zamfara province (NW Nigeria) to the mix and who knows, it's possible that ISWAP won't be just a problem related to Borno.

This is actually a second ISIS heatmap I did. You can see how it looked 3 months ago. Spoiler: There weren't too many changes.

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