, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ On cue, climate zealots pronounce high 2019 Ottawa River runoff as evidence of global warming. Spring runoff flooding in Canada is mainly due to snow melt: more snow = more runoff. Below is plot of observed daily maximum runoff at Gatineau to date plus projected peak this week
3/ time series up to 2016 showed a decline from levels in the mid-1970s. If global warming led to higher Ottawa River runoff as opportunistic zealots like Jonathan Overpeck allege, then it would be observable in data to 2016 as well as to 2019.
4/ in Canada, we're hearing about 100-year floods. Data at ottawariver.ca only goes back to 1965 though there must have been prior observations back to 19th century. Today's level is slightly below 1974, but another 0.7 m to come. Much reason for local concern.
5/ I worked in Ottawa in 1976-77 arriving in the bitter bitter cold of Dec 1976. Previous high spring runoffs coincided with these bitter winters. So it's not obvious to me that high spring runoff on Ottawa River is evidence of increased warmth.
6/ also, isn't global warming supposed to mean less snowfall, which, in turn, would lead to less spring runoff?
7/ on local weather, it was reported that there was a spring storm which happened to coincide with high spring runoff season. I.e. weather, not climate.
8/ also, I suspect that there has been increased encroachment into river valley by suburban development since the 1970s - a local variation of a widespread development issue, with climate "change" making a negligible contribution to any damage.
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