Thread by @LTCPeterLerner

Analysis on #Gaza - #Israel situation:
1. Yesterday's violent cross-border riots were planned to escalate the situation. They resulted in 2 Palestinian deaths.
2. #Hamas proved it controls the extent of the riots after the last round.
(image Amnon Ziv) ...... >

3. Hamas is attempting to draw #Israel into a higher level of friction in order to increase its gains from the negotiations.
4. It's failures of the last year, civilian strife that continues, rift with the PA and the internal political pressures remain its core interest --->

5. #Israel is at a turning point after shots fired and wounded IDF officers. The retaliation was clear but measured.
6. #Israeli leadership, is free of elections but doesn't want an escalation before Eurovision. Hamas sees it as a bargaining chip. (Image social media)
--->

7. The more Hamas escalates and Israel retaliates the probability of widescale collision increases. The threshold of casualties is the determining factor for both sides. The coming hours are critical.
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