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8 tweets,
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My Twitter feed is overflowing w/insistence these threats are bogus. But many who are so certain in their skepticism today are among the same who've warned that Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA could provoke Iranian retaliation.
None of us operating solely on the basis of open source info can assert authoritatively whether the specific precipitants for heightened concern re: Iran cited today by the Trump administration are real or hyped or some combination thereof.
Let me emphasize (as others have failed to do): it's perfectly predictable that Tehran might retaliate vs US interests & assets in response to the maximum pressure campaign. I warned of that 1 yr ago (here brook.gs/2FWqdZg) & I'm hardly alone. Don't assume this is bogus.
To counterattack in response to pressure is a standard part of the Iranian playbook. But the reflexive skepticism re: this latest Trump move vs Iran is hugely problematic. Unfortunately the Trump admin has sacrificed its own credibility from the outset, esp but not just on Iran.
Moments like these are when institutions should matter: leadership at the cabinet level, a serious policy- making process, intelligence standards, professional ethics. All those have been eroded by the Trump administration.
Same goes for allies: a unified response to elevated threats from Iran would bolster confidence in US assessments & strengthen deterrence. But Trump's contempt for alliances, & their handiwork in the JCPOA, has undermined that instrument as well.
And it's not just government institutions that matter: it's the role of the media as an independent arbiter of facts & shaper of public opinion. Trump spares no effort to impugn the integrity of the press, not merely as inaccurate but as an "enemy." So who can the public trust?
So while I'm less persuaded than many that the latest escalation of US-Iran tensions is another step on a presumably inexorable path to war, I'm deeply worried. Trump has sabotaged the capacity of the American body politic to distinguish between a real crisis & a hyped/faked one.
