Thread by @infinity10

Ok. I am going to shoot the breeze now and it will be a layperson’s coffeeshop talk thread.

Let’s imagine that China sees the Trump trade war as a transient episode, and it hopes for a more pliant Dem President to emerge in 2020z

Let’s also imagine that the Trump re-election machine wants all bases covered, and declines to push for election security from foreign influence and interference.

This sets up a situation where the next foreign interference in election technology and influence campaigns may not be Russia, but China.

The re-election machinery meanwhile may still be counting on Russian activity to trash the Dems in 2020. That could blindside the entire country to China activity.

But then why the anti-Huawei and generally anti-China info tech stance ? Because incumbent government realises that it’s not the potential for spying but for China interference in 2020.

Well, Russia got some sanctions thrown at them and the JCPOA situation isn’t pretty anymore. It has also become a little bit more difficult for Russia to act in 2020.

But the re-election machinery is running a tougher race, and this time, watch out for China. All the decades-long relationship-building with Russian individuals won’t counterbalance China’s potential to act.

So now the 2020 foreign influence source may shift away from Russian contacts toward China proxies. Keep eyes wide open.

And I am not anti-China. I am merely yadday-ing that they have a much longer view of the Trump-initiated trade war than the USA has.

However, let’s consider Trump as private businessman. He will look for post-Presidency business opportunities in China and with China-associated countries around the World. He will not burn those bridges so readily.

So while his courtiers will want to flatten China’s economic dominance, Trump himself as a businessman will probably benefit from delaying any conclusive trade war settlements which may affect his post-Presidency opportunities.

From the way China has been dealing with Trump the President, it is clear they expect him to reparesent USA interests and they give him face that he does.

What is not so obvious is whether China is also playing the post-presidency business opportunities card in front of Trump.

Trump is not a young man age-wise; his days of engaging in new mega-business deals are limited by human lifespan. If he somehow gets re-elected, he will be stuck in the WH for another 4 years.

Another four years may come at the price of foregoing some very attractive mega-deals, which China or its proxies may very well be able to dangle to a private businessman. But he has to return to private life to engage in those.

It will be interesting to watch how these various angles come to play on the individual seeking re-election. China and Trump may very well benefit from prolonging an inconclusive trade war beyond 2020.

I think I shall pause here.

Represent - typo

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I should add post script, that there is a NYT article mentioning Bank of China being one of the lenders in a complex loan for one of Trump’s buildings. That role is so small compared to the other Trump financing that it is likely inconsequential to China strategy.