Thread by @althecat

. @UKLabour is cratering in the final run up to #EuropeanElection2019

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129865094886821888

While @yougov was the outlier in the 2017 General Election, it was also the closest to picking the final result, mainly because they picked the upswing in turnout among young people. /2

While the latest UK poll results vary wildly (especially wrt #EuropeanElection2019) the trend is clear - disastrous for @Conservatives, worsening for @UKLabour and miraculous for @brexitparty_uk (aka @Nigel_Farage). /3

In the #europeanelections2019 polls the combined vote share of the #remain parties ChangeUK + Greens + LibDems is with one exception ranked 2nd, ahead of @uklabour.
32 @yougov
29 @comres
24 @opiniumresearch
19 @survation
26 @hanburystrategy /4

Moreover if you add the @brexitparty_uk vote to the combined three party #remain vote a clear plurality of likely expected UK EU election voters are now casting their votes on the basis of political party views on #brexit. /5

In recent UK General Election polls while @UKLabour is doing better, and is often in 1st place, the combined Labour + @Conservatives vote is plumbing (presumably historic) depths of close to 50%, and falling. /6

Any way you look at the current UK political situation, the polls now point to a seismic change underway, one which is catastrophic for both @UKLabour and @Conservatives and one which points towards an end to two party domination of Westminster’s “Mother of Parliaments”. /7

In these two #PollOfPolls graphs you can see the spectacular shift in UK polls over the past few weeks, driven in part by the Local Elections (held May 2nd) and the upcoming #EuropeanElection2019 which begins May 23. /8

In the #EuropeanElection2019 #pollofpolls the @LibDems are poised to overtake @UKLabour and the Greens to overtake @Conservatives. While @brexitparty_uk is already six points ahead of @UKLabour and @Conservatives combined. /9 ref: politico.eu/2019-european-…

Meanwhile the UK #PollofPolls on the simple question of should the UK #remain or should it #brexit are unambiguous. Since the Election in mid 2017 #remain has been in the lead (and is presently ahead by 9 points). /10

In summary: 1/ The local and EU elections have triggered a seismic change in UK politics.
2/ In the EU elections > 50% of voters are now voting on the single issue of #Brexit vs #remain.
3/ On the core question, a majority of Britons now support remaining in the EU. /11

All of which seriously begs the questions: What does @jeremycorbyn think he is doing? What advice is he receiving? And when will he align his position on #Brexit with the majority of his MPs, members, voters and Britons? Video here >> /12

The most controversial part of this @AndrewMarr9 IV with @jeremycorbyn is his unfathomable position on “Freedom of Movement”, but there is plenty more for any political strategist to be worried about. /13 ends

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