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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/3 Our poll shows a slight preference - 58/42 - to allowing publication of juicy quotes from anonymous reviews. I have hoped for a more decisive preference. Aside from the entertaining value of such a collection, and its encouraging effects on young researchers,
2/3 I am concerned with its historical value. Written under the shield of power and impunity reviewers comments are the most honest and faithful reflections of the state of mind of a scientific community at any given period. Such historical treasure should not be allowed to rot
3/3 in the archives of outdated journals. There should be at least some status of limitation before unveiling this information to the public. Anyone knows what happens to these archives? Can a historian request access to the reviews of Turing's paper of 1937 ?? #Bookofwhy
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/3 The #Bookofwhy is not about "what causal calculus cannot do" (eg, play chess, translate languages etc) but about the many miracles it CAN do. Among them resolving the simple version of Lord Paradox, with two dining halls, each serving one diet, and a very large sample. So,
2/ believe it or not, but this simple version is still paradoxical to most mortals, and has been paradoxical for half a century. It is now resolved by causal calculus. Your multi-hall version may be of interest in a certain context, but I cant understand why you are insisting
3/3 that this idiosyncratic version is essential for resolving the simple version, and that he who does not attend to your version is guilty of neglecting the foundations of statistics or worse. I do not buy it. Lets focus on the simple version -- are you happy with the solution?
Read 3 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/4 I believe this set of slides reinforces what I tweeted earlier: -- its hard to cut the embilical chord to Mother-Stat. It occurred to me that this urgency to stay in Stat-womb was also the motivation behind the potential-outcome framework. The benefits
2/4 were obvious, nothing is new, Y_1 and Y_0 are ordinary variables, with some missing values, so what? Everything else is ordinary statistics. The price, of course, was (1) Everything was tied to experimental "treatments", not to "events" or absence of events, and (2) we need
3/4 to express knowledge in the language of {Y_1, Y_0} , namely, in the formidable language of "conditional ignorability". Some would argue: What's wrong in letting statisticians broaden the scope of statistics and then believe that "it is all statistics"? I believe PO is a good
Read 4 tweets
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
@jd_wilko 1/n It is not really "provocative", just a gentle way of luring statisticians to cut the umbilical chord from Mother Stat. Instead of surgical do-operator, you condition on a variable F (force) which does the surgery for you. I used it in 1993 ucla.in/2pJqtW3 when
@jd_wilko 2/n I thought that statistician are not prepared for a surgery. Other researchers, too, labor to create the illusion of remaining in the stat-womb. E.g., Heckman etal created a fix-operator to enforce this illusion ucla.in/2L8OCyl. The folks at @harvardEpi still teach CI
@jd_wilko @HarvardEpi 3/3 by "imitating RCT's". It is a tough umbilical chord to cut. Denis Lindley was the only statistician I met who said: CUT! In all these schemes we still need to import information from outside the data, which is the key to realizing that we are out of the stat-womb. #Bookofwhy
Read 3 tweets

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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
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#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

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Sotiri Dimpinoudis ❁‏
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Anonymous Scandinavia🌐#SafePassage⏳#NoExpulsion
@AnonScan
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@DrDenaGrayson
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VOTE, so that we do this NATIONWIDE‼️🇺🇸

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@pitchblacksugar
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