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Afternoon panel: #DeterrenceConf
What is current strategy? US NDS says long term threat is RUS and CHI seek to mould the world in their favour at the expense of the rules based order. CHI scoping and pacing power, RUS acute problem with nuclear weapons and a gang of rogues.
Every new 1* had entered the military post 1991. So competition with new powers is not new to them nor is the chaos of post Cold War order.
Key challenges. Rus and Chi are focussed on breaking down alliance structures. National security only comes from hegemony in their own backyards. Rus and Chi will not contest each other - the reality is great power competitions normally end in war.
We need to decisively win the cost/benefit arguments. Alliances = winning (military balance). Alliances = winning (peace and prosperity). Alliances = cheap compared to cost of losing (that’s just for you @simon_puxley
Allies need to respond to these challenges. Keep exercising together - prove the credibility and power of combined capabilities and collaboration. Keep a unified narrative.
Second challenge. Competition across continuum. Revisionist powers are ahead and are willing to exploit gaps - info environment. Using mis-information for strategic effect. (RT as an example) discredit US, get nuclear missiles out of Europe and fracture NATO.
RT fake news WMD sabre rattling. Recasting nuclear shadow of hosting US forces or nuclear weapons on smaller states. Isolate IS and NATO.
Adapting to Information Domain Competition. Easier to cut an op order than it is to get a tweet approved. (Amen to that). We need to change some permissions and authorities in this area.
Treaties and International Law. Deny and counter such a law/treaty exists and issue counter accusation, veto or recast the problem comepetley.
We need to put together a better narrative on RUS CHI transgressions of international law - for example INF. Human rights abuses, internment, etc. Relies on retention of moral high ground.
What forms of multilateral strategic risk reduction and arms control should we pursue? We need to generate plausible and alternatives to a merely western led parent-child relationships.
Really interesting debate about the role of the EU as a key threat to RUS values base rather than NATO.
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