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Seumas will be praying, absolutely praying that Johnson gets to No. 10. Here's why. /THREAD
1/ He is, quite simply, one of the most unpopular people on the planet. And there's as a known entity. Someone else - Hancock, Mordaunt, Javid - could maybe surprise people, make them take a fresh look. Not BJ.
2/ What Lab needs most of all is to hold their coalition together. Rumour has it that it got torn to shreds on Thursday. The hatred and derision that only The Fakest Person Alive evokes across the broad Left will likely glue Lab's electoral tribes back together again.
3/ Labour needs an atmosphere of crisis, and a deligitimation of accepted governing practices, to win - perhaps outright. Johnson's inability to do a stroke of actual work could give you that.
4/ It would still more help Lab's case if there was an No-Deal Brexit - a Winter of Discontent all of Labour's own, to justify rapid action and to mythologise as 'Tory chaos'.
5/ More broadly and culturally, the characters we know as 'Boris' and 'Jezza' can only thrive in the one ecosystem. What gives power to one gives power to the other: they rise or fall together.
6/ I think this probably is the analysis inside LOTO, since their vanguardist Straight Left view of the world would welcome a head-to-head between two different views of the state, shorn of complexity - and of instinctive liberals.
7/ Labour in this incarnation is kind of *meh* about both Europe and the Union, both with Scotland and NI. So Johnson threatening them both - as he does - is a price well worth paying for access to the executive organs of the state.
So really, Boris means Jezza. Now the Tories deserve that and more, of course, and a large majority roads lead to Jezza now in some way IMHO, but I thought I'd say. /END
