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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
, 14 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
Updated numbers of Tory MPs publicly backing candidates from @GuidoFawkes
Michael Gove 18
Dominic Raab 15
Boris Johnson 14
Jeremy Hunt 13
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
Andrea Leadsom 2
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And @ConHome's rival tally (deducting the candidate themselves to make numbers comparable):
Jeremy Hunt 26
Boris Johnson 19
Michael Gove 17
Dominic Raab 14
Sajid Javid 9
Matt Hancock 4
Esther McVey 3
Mark Harper 3
conservativehome.com/parliament/201…
My combined totals of @GuidoFawkes & @ConHome lists:
Jeremy Hunt 28
Michael Gove 23
Boris Johnson 22
Dominic Raab 17
Sajid Javid 10
Matt Hancock 7
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
I know how to spend a bank holiday weekend
@GuidoFawkes You have David Evennett listed twice, for Javid and Harper, so I've allocated him to Harper as per @ConHome
Numbers of Tory MPs publicly backing candidates. Dominic Raab has picked up 2 more. Updated combined totals of @GuidoFawkes & @ConHome lists:
Jeremy Hunt 28
Michael Gove 23
Boris Johnson 22
Dominic Raab 19
Sajid Javid 10
Matt Hancock 7
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
(Figures excluding the candidates themselves)
There's been a switch from Raab to Johnson! @GuidoFawkes reports Sheryll Murray has defected, although she was never recorded in the Raab column docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Numbers of Tory MPs publicly backing candidates. Updated combined totals of @GuidoFawkes & @ConHome lists (excl cands themselves):
Jeremy Hunt 28
Michael Gove 23
Boris Johnson 23
Dominic Raab 20
Sajid Javid 10
Matt Hancock 7
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
From this it looks like a four-person all-male race: Hunt vs Gove for soft Brexit vote; Johnson vs Raab for no-deal Brexit vote
Numbers of Tory MPs publicly backing candidates. Tiny tweaks to combined totals of @GuidoFawkes & @ConHome lists (excl cands themselves):
Jeremy Hunt 29
Boris Johnson 22
Michael Gove 21
Dominic Raab 20
Sajid Javid 10
Matt Hancock 7
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
Latest @conhome lists are here conservativehome.com/parliament/201… The @GuidoFawkes spreadsheet is here docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Boris Johnson has another backer (Stuart Andrew):
Jeremy Hunt 29
Boris Johnson 23
Michael Gove 21
Dominic Raab 20
Sajid Javid 10
Matt Hancock 7
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And Michael Gove gains Alberto Costa
Jeremy Hunt 29
Boris Johnson 23
Michael Gove 22
Dominic Raab 20
Sajid Javid 10
Matt Hancock 7
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 4
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Final vote share, with changes from 2014 assuming the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor:
Brexit Party 32% +7
Lib Dem 20% +13
Labour 14% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
SNP+PC 5% +1
ChangeUK 3% +3
Ukip 3% (27% last time, but Brexit+Ukip +7 w rounding)
bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cr…
And you know what that means? We have a winner of the sweepstake! The best guess was just 3 %age points out (+2 on Lab, -1 on Green)
Starting with an honourable mention for @John_S_Macleod – a total of 10 points out, but he entered on 1st day, 5 May, so did not have advantage of later opinion polls: Brexit 30%, Lab 15%, Con 10%, Lib Dem 18%, Green 8%, ChUK 3%
Read 5 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
The Tories are doomed – but Farage didn’t do well enough to force a no-deal Brexit. Me on European elections independent.co.uk/voices/europea…
The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party have both failed. Labour didn’t do well either, but its setback may be temporary. – My assessment of the European elections
It was great night for the Tory party
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
If we assume the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor, the share and change figs are:
Brexit Party 31% +7
Lib Dem 21% +14
Labour 15% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
ChangeUK 4% +4
bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cr…
And the 5 Remain parties (incl SNP and Plaid) on 40%, well ahead of Brexit plus Ukip on 35%
But then the Tories are clearly a Leave party so it should be 40% Remain, 44% Leave and 14% Don't Know
Read 9 tweets

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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
In latest #Brexit note I’m told “The person who might defeat Boris is Boris.” So what do we think is next for #Brexit? Short thread on our revised basecase - which will evolve - post May & Euro elections
Results of Euro elections will have significant impact on both Tories & Labour. But in short term, the most dramatic impact will be felt in the Tory leadership race 1/
1) @Nigel_Farage triumph is good news for @BorisJohnson, who is the man to beat, the agenda-setter and early front-runner & our basecase for PM (If not, then we think @DominicRaab, followed by @michaelgove then @Jeremy_Hunt) 2/
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
OK, debate begins on May's third-meaningful-vote-it's-not-a-meaningful-vote-but-actually-it-is-she's-a-desperate-liar.
Rattling boombox Geoffrey Cox is up for the government. "This should've been the day we left the European Union," he says.
"I do not intend to review how and why we have arrived at this point." Bet you don't mate.
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
A constant refrain from my fellow remainers is name be a #Brexit benefit many devote immense energy writing detailed explanations of trade tarrifs or how the EU works. I am grateful to them as I have learned a lot from them yet we all wonder why it makes so little difference
It seems to me that a better question to leavers is what are you getting out of #Brexit why do you support it in the face of so much evidence that its a terrible idea and I would like to suggest the answer lies in the realms of feeling
We have all seen that #Brexit licenses all kinds of opinions that 1l0 years ago would have been unacceptable but more than that it licences BEHAVIOURS that usually are unacceptable and thus gives many adherents a immense pleasure
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DPWFreeborn
@DPWF0
Time for a brief thread on some of the public figures who annoy me more than anyone else in the world.
(This is not necessarily the people I think are worst, or dislike the most, or disagree with the most. These are just the most irritating.)
They fall into several categories:
(1) "Modernising" conservatives:
- Steve Hilton
- James Cleverly
- Cameron/Osborne
- Michael Gove
- Zac Goldsmith
- Sebastian Kurz
- Lord Ashcroft
- Paul Ryan
- Jeb!
- Rand Paul
- Leo Varadkar
(2) Tech "entrepreneurs":
- Mark Zuckerberg -- the most annoying.
- Elon Musk -- maybe worse because people respect him.
- Peter Thiel -- just the worst in objective terms.
- Jeff Bezos
- Ken Howery
- The Uber people
- Jaan Tallinn
- Eric Weinstein
Also: James Dyson, if he counts
Read 9 tweets
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Alistair King
@Alistair_King
1/ I'm breaking a press embargo reporting on this but I've learnt that for the finale of their conference, the Tories plan to release a new party anthem. Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid will lead its first rendition, the ERG providing grating harmonies. Here it is:
2/
Don't know much about history
Don't know much sociology
Don't know much about a tariff book
Don't know much about the pound I shook
But I do know that I hate EU
And I know that if you hate it, too
How pathetically small we would be
3/
Don't know much about geography
Don't know much macroeconomy
Don't know much about Africa
Don't know what EBA rules are for
But I do know that I will lie to you
And I'll do it cos you buy it too
How pathetically small we would be

/Ends
Read 3 tweets
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Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
Emergency debate in parliament today re Vote Leave.
MPs: this Google drive is key evidence.
Set up by VL to co-ordinate BeLeave's content. On right: the deletion log.
March 1, Electoral Commission opened investigation.
March 17, Vote Leave deleted itself from 140 files
Co-ordination between campaigns is illegal. Deleting evidence that may be required in an investigation is illegal. Our electoral system operates on the basis of self-reporting, compliance with the law, trust. This appears to be a cynical exploitation of that.
If proven, this would be the biggest election scandal of modern times. The biggest overspend. Our electoral laws were overhauled in 19th century to stop elections being bought. But they're now unenforceable, because: Facebook.
Read 11 tweets

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