,
7 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
But EPP, Socialists & Liberal cooperation in Bxl now necessary to limit €sceptic advance; 3) give Orban more power to determine balance between EPP & Socialists - should he choose to leave EPP. Amplifies leverage of Orban's ~14 MEPs; 4) Also complicates life for @matteosalvinimi
Very unclear if Farage will sit in his group. As one senior official puts it: “the logic of him sitting in his own group is that he will want to be chair or co-chair so he can get speaking time in big debates. In the Salvini group there will be a hell of a fight as to who leads.”
Depending upon how bad the mess created by UK, this could affect politics of A50 extension. To quote senior EU official "A lot will flow from Euro elections & the mess it will make for us. If bad, it will be a wake up call for EU leaders. They will say this simply cannot go on."
And this all before WA/backstop "table banging" by @BorisJohnson or @DominicRaab has even begun!! Add to this the fact that 1) EU wants MFF negotiations wrapped up in Q1 2020 (impossible to do it when there's uncertainty over UK; EU needs to know if budget is for 27 or 28) and...
2) Germany holds Presidency in second half of 2020 & won't want to deal with MFF/Brexit mess & this suggests that if another extension is granted by EU27 in Oct (likely) it will probably be the LAST one (increasingly likely)
Of course lots will happen in between, but if another extension is granted beyond 31 October, it's getting more likely EU leaders will make clear that by the time it concludes, the UK will need to have made a choice between: deal (WA/backstop); revoke or no-deal. Time is up. ENDS
