Thread by @rossatkin

There were some not very useful infographics of the EU election data going around yesterday and some dodgy takes based on them. I’ve tried to visualise the results here in a way that you can meaningfully compare them with voting in the 2016 referendum. 👇 #infographic #brexit

@hugorifkind @rowlsmanthorpe @BethRigby @davidallengreen @afneil @stephenkb this might be of interest 👆

The most important take away is that there are a lot of people voted in the 2016 referendum but probably aren’t that bothered about Brexit either way (and so didn’t turn out for these elections, despite there being so much to play for politically).

Of the people who are bothered, almost no one wants to leave with a deal. Remain is the destination with the most votes (makes sense, everyone knows what remaining is, whereas there are flavours of leaving) but if you add the two flavours of leave together they got more votes.

Obviously this is a gross simplification because both Tory and Labour positions are so contorted we don't know what people who voted for them really want. We would need to assume that a million more of them (>25%) would choose no-deal over remain, for no deal to come out on top.

This is all relatively small numbers though! What is important is that there are about 7 million people who passionately want to remain, about 6 million people who passionately want to leave with no deal, and about 20 million people who voted in 2016 but aren’t so passionate.

This means that, should there be a second referendum, it will be won, like the first one, by whoever is better at reaching those people who aren’t that passionate/engaged. These are people who don’t usually follow politics and who’s attention needs to be bought on Facebook.

That’s why Facebook advertising was so impactful in 2016 and will be in a future referendum unless it’s got under control. (It was a side show in these elections with the top spenders this year spending less than 10% of what Vote Leave spent in 2016).

The news got buried by the Independent Group defections (in the week it was published) but the Commons inquiry into “Disinformation and ‘fake news’” concluded that “Electoral law is not fit for purpose and needs to be changed to reflect changes in campaigning techniques”.

Their report sets out a host of recommendations for bringing digital campaigning in line with all the norms and standards of transparency that apply to campaigning in traditional media:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…

I explained a few months ago why the illegal Facebook advertising activity in 2016 probably swung the referendum result. If we are to have another referendum, or meaningful election, we need to get the rules in place first. [ends]

https://twitter.com/rossatkin/status/1070282740170452997