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The Tories are in a deathlock & I can't see how they escape. If they don't embrace No Deal, their vote will shatter & they'll haemorrhage support to the Brexit Party. If they do, they'll blow up the govt, lose their moderates & be punished by the electorate when the pain is felt.
The Tories will probably now rush towards "No Deal", to fend off the challenge of Farage. But if they think that solves the problem, they're deluding themselves. There is no option now that doesn't shatter their electoral coalition - one that only limped across the line in 2017.
If the Tories fight an election promising No Deal, they'll take back votes from the Brexit Party, but they'll lose them in Scotland, the South West & the cities. If they try to do it without an election, there's a high chance that the party will split and the government fall.
The closer the Tories get to No Deal, the less the pressure on Labour to firm up its own Brexit policy, beyond simply ruling out No Deal. Under the lash of First Past the Post, Labour will be able to make a strong case that only they can stop No Deal. Corbyn is a lucky general.
The Tories had the chance to be honest with the electorate three years ago: to say that it was more important to do Brexit well than to do it quickly, & to be frank about the trade-offs. Instead, they thought they borrow Farage's rhetoric without legitimising Farage's politics.
That Labour remain the likely beneficiaries, after 3 yrs of cowardice & obfuscation, speaks volumes about our electoral system. But Labour should learn from the Tories' example: making incompatible promises that you cannot deliver comes at a price. Lab may be next in the furnace.
