Thread by @AlexDean94

Tory leadership candidates continue to insist they can renegotiate the Northern Ireland backstop. I've spoken to lots of experts and politicians about this over recent weeks. Will the EU budge? (Thread-- likely an article when I get round to it!)

For John Kerr, the author of Article 50: "The answer is, of course, No Way."

We made a "joint commitment to keep the Irish border as open as it is today. To time-limit the backstop would put that commitment, and the 1998 Belfast Treaty, in doubt, and the EU won't do that"

What about a "sunset clause"?

For @piris_jc , the EU's top lawyer for two decades:

"You cannot have a time limit. You cannot ignore the GFA and the risks involved if controls at the Irish border were re-established just because a certain period of time would have elapsed."

@piris_jc For Michael Lux, who was EU head of customs:

"There is no way that the EU will water down, or agree to a time limit for, the stipulated conditions... The so called 'alternative arrangements' are in practice not possible"

@piris_jc For @DavidHenigUK , former Assistant Director at the Department for International Trade:

"Never say never, but very unlikely that the backstop can be removed now or in a future free trade agreement. You'd need a huge amount more negotiating sophistication... from the UK side"

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK For @hayward_katy: "One irony is that the more the prospective PMs put pressure on the backstop, the more likely the EU is to dig in its heels" because of the fact that "trust and goodwill between the two has become severely diminished."

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy .@GeorginaEWright told me: "The EU have been very consistent on this issue." A time limit "would defeat the very nature of the backstop, which is to act as an insurance policy."

"Given that there aren’t any workable [alternatives] on the table, I doubt the EU27 will budge. "

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright So the expert view is clear. But some insist change is possible. Igor Judge, former Lord Chief Justice:

"I can't think why there should not be an equivalent to a 'sunset clause.' Which after whatever time you agree... either party could say thank you very much, it’s now over."

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright Sammy Wilson of the DUP told me: "if the UK government adopts a strong stance in its negotiations with the EU" then "magically a solution to the Irish border which does not require the current backstop will emerge."

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright Theresa Villiers, former Northern Ireland Secretary, told me the infamous "Malthouse compromise" would "maintain a border which is invisible and free-flowing, but also compliant. These plans deploy existing technology and existing administrative flexibilities." (I'm sceptical)

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright For Peter Lilley, former Sec of State for Trade

"If the UK rejects the ‘backstop’ the Irish and EU will have to create an invisible border (which does not require new technology) which resolves that issue and opens the way to the Canada-style FTA" (Again, I am sceptical)

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright Meanwhile Nicky Morgan said:

"The EU clearly wants the Withdrawal Agreement ratified with the backstop in, so the UK needs to push for the alternative arrangements to be negotiated now so MPs can see how the backstop is never needed."

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright For what it's worth, my own thinking is that the EU is very unlikely to budge. The backstop is about more than just the backstop now- it is about the principle of solidarity between member states (and big looking out for small). They won't abandon that

@piris_jc @DavidHenigUK @hayward_katy @GeorginaEWright Any thoughts? @chrisgreybrexit @davidallengreen @WomaninHavana @Sime0nStylites @prospect_clark