Thread by @syrpis

Another frustrated thread. Almost no one, on any side of the Brexit debate is offering a realistic path forward. People, it seems, see some, but not all, of this. A quick thread. 1/

Each of these propositions is, I think, true.

a) The WA will not be approved by a majority of MPs. 2/

b) The EU will not reopen negotiations on the WA (though it will entertain changes to the Political Declaration). 3/

c) MPs will not allow 'no deal' (however managed) to pass through Parliament. 4/

d) A PV, even on 'any Brexit deal' and with a remain option, relies on there being a Brexit deal which MPs will agree to put to the people. We are where we are because no Brexit deal which commands support exists. 5/

e) MPs will not (despite my best efforts; see below) agree to revoking the Article 50 notification. 6/
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12…

f) The second extension is due to expire on 31 October. Any further extension relies on the unanimous agreement of the EU-27. 7/

Something is going to have to give. 8/

My best guess: we are headed for a general election in the autumn, with all sides seeking a mandate to enable the impasse to be unblocked. 9/

The EU, and the UK, will be hoping that a majority (for something...) emerges. We're likely to see a very different HoC post a GE. The stakes could not be higher. 10/10