, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A and B have been repeatedly rejected by the EU, C probably has no majority in the Commons. Belief doesn't suddenly make the other side drop their red lines. A kind of pretend renegotiation then Parliamentary majority possible. Or no deal by accident. But all paths tricky.
Now there are those in the UK who think I and others saying the Commission mean what they say on no renegotiation have been taken in by EU spin or money. No, we're going by what they say. And it would be a massive reputational hit to the EU if they didn't mean it.
Parliament's no deal position is more difficult to judge. Perhaps MPs would not block if the alternative is bringing down the Government. But it is quite possible. And the no deal gamble on the economy and future of the UK real. Tense times ahead then.
See also this... now in terms of those of us who study Brexit excessively there is a genuine divide between those thinking a Northern Ireland only backstop is in the end quite likely and those who think not. I'm in the latter camp. But who knows really?
So many other good tweets around on Brexit, @DmitryOpines on tariffs faced by EU exporters in no-deal, @nmdacosta on Parliament and no-deal, but picking this as essential - the Tory split on Brexit - basically between sovereigntists and economy first
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