Thread by @AMTabaqchali

My review on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for June: The budget surplus for 2019 continues to grow & is currently at about $2.8bn by end of April,

iraq-businessnews.com/2019/07/08/mar…

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which, based on current spending patterns & reported oil revenues, could grow to about $4.2bn by the end of June. Helped by the healing effects of increasing oil revenues, this surplus is on top of surpluses of $1.6bn for 2017 & $21.6bn for 2018 (chart)

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Current spending patterns, making up the bulk of the 2019 budget spending at about 75% of the total, are steady & consistent with an expansionary budget in which this spending is up +15% over 2018.

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Investment spending patterns, on the other hand, show a shift in gear as the government began to implement the 2019 budget, which came into law & thus into effect in late February.

However, these are from a very low base & in-line with expectations made here ...

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... over the last few months that such spending would begin as a trickle but should grow as investment spending gets underway, adding fuel to a consumer led recovery, & ultimately leading to a sustained economic recovery.

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This potential economic fuel comes from the 2019 budget’s non-oil investment programme at about $2.5bn, which is equivalent to about a 7.5% stimulus to the estimated non-oil GDP for 2019.

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