Thread by @Brad_Setser

The current slowdown in global trade isn't just a function of Trump's trade war with China. China itself remains weak,. It hasn't been a strong source of demand for the world's goods.

cfr.org/blog/continuin…

There is (understandably) a lot of emphasis on the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade right now. But a lot of trade globally hasn't been directly impacted by the U.S. tariffs, and that trade is weak too -- in no small part b/c China's imports of manufactures are falling.

China's manufacturing surplus with countries that aren't (directly) involved in the tariff war has soared by around $100 billion over the last 12ms of data, largely because of weak Chinese imports

And while Trump may nost especially like it, the U.S. trade deficit in manufactures with the trade war's bystanders has continued to rise. Largley b/c U.S. imports from the world are still growing (U.S. exports have stalled).

you could argue that growth is all just diversion away from China, but I don't think that's the full story -- imports in the categories hit heavily by tariffs haven't really jumped v the old trend (e.g. what you see is mostly a fall in trade with China)

No matter. One this is clear. The rising U.S. trade deficit in manufactures with everyone other than China still provides a small positive demand impulse to the world, Which has helping to offset (imo) a portion of the drag coming out of China.

pretty obvious to me that the manufacturing trade balance (ex China) has been very responsive to changes in the dollar -- but that's for another time.

lots of caveats to this analysis can be found in the blog post. Obviously putting this kinds of charts together takes a certain willingness to muck around with the details of the trade data.