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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
On the other hand:

- Free Ports sound good
- Can pretend EU rules prevented them in the past
- Action without the boring bit of deciding rationale
- Plenty of opportunities for corruption (free ports are a nice gift to a locality)
And if Sam wrote about it then Dmitry must, by trade geek law, have done similarly...
The serious analysis of free ports by @pholmes8 @uk_tpo - they probably don't achieve a lot, you still need to follow WTO disciplines, and most importantly ensure this isn't just about relocation from one place to another blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publicat…
@pholmes8 @uk_tpo So amazingly or not it seems that an impending Government announcement of Free Ports will be based on no great evidence, which at least will be in keeping with the rationale for a US or Australian trade deal i.e. none we've yet been told.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I note both on twitter and in real life the remain v no-deal divide is only becoming more entrenched, which we're going to suffer from because if there's one area you really need some cross-party consensus it is international economic policy - otherwise investors won't come... 1/
Current Government policy - deal with US, no deal with EU. So investors who want preferential access to the US market could build here. Except that the opposition policy is deal with EU, no-deal with US. On that basis you're going to wait (see car industry...) 2/
Now if we think 50% of the population are likely to remain supportive of close relations with / membership of the EU, and 50% will not (for argument's sake), those in the first group will inevitably win one day... but this then becomes zero sum politics 3/
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Entirely for domestic consumption, to look tough, while ignoring how it looks outside the UK. The EU decided in June 2016 that the remaining 27 would decide their approach, rather than the departing member.
By the way, that magical future FTA which solves the Irish border, preserves all trade advantages of EU membership with no cost, and has no conditions that the ERG will object to, does not and will not ever exist.
More reality denial (although it remains possible that the EU will offer a token concession at some stage which Johnson will claim as backstop abolition)

Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Old observation, but businesses / major investors require broad policy stability which they won't get from a Government afraid to go to Parliament, and a country utterly polarised on the subject of international relations.
To put it another way, why invest seriously in a free port if a future Government will negotiate a deal with the EU in which exports from the free port will not benefit?

Or similarly invest in diversifying markets away from the EU if we'll have a future deal?
Of all the many issues with no-deal, the fact it imposes an economic shock but then in the future we're likely to sign a deal accepting many of the same conditions (assuming other parties maintain their policies) is one of the most significant.
Read 3 tweets

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Chris Kendall 🇪🇺
@ottocrat
This is desperate stuff. Global superpowers will prioritise trade deals with other global superpowers, because that’s where the maximum added value lies. We are part of that, and can still be if we #StopBrexit.
Sure they could do a separate deal with the post-Brexit UK. (a) We’ll be a lower priority, (b) we will have less leverage, (c) if we want decent deals we’ll have to follow EU rules regardless - just now it will be without a say in them.
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