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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
, 4 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
ADM #HarryHarris:
#PLARF "controls the 'largest & most diverse #missile force in the world, with an inventory of more than 2,000 ballistic & cruise missiles.'

...if #China were a signatory [to #INF #Treaty], 95% of its #missiles would be in violation"

andrewerickson.com/2019/08/u-s-en…
My take: #Russia wouldn’t fully honor #INF. #China wouldn’t join INF. Unilateral constraint was a losing proposition: China developed the world’s foremost force of #missiles precisely within the ranges that INF would prohibit. So this increasingly antiquated treaty had no future.
1 post-INF option for US—reach agreements w allies/partners to allow rapid introduction of missiles in various contingencies to support their defense. Even if peacetime politics precluded permanent deployment, more concerning scenarios could tip balance in favor of local support.
Question for agencies today & historians tomorrow: By forcing withdrawal of #PershingII #missiles, did #INF Treaty inadvertently offer #China a key source of #ASBM-relevant tech? At a minimum, PRC researchers studied Pershing II missiles extremely closely: andrewerickson.com/wp-content/upl…
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More from @AndrewSErickson see all

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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
“Andrew Erickson, a maritime militia expert @NavalWarCollege, recently called for the US to “deal with China’s sea forces holistically” & state clearly that it expected China’s #Navy, #CoastGuard & #MaritimeMilitia to follow international rules.” ft.com/content/ab4b16… #PAFMM
“He added that the US had to ‘accept some friction and force Beijing to choose between de-escalating — the preferred US outcome — or to move up against a US red line that China would prefer to avoid’.” amp.ft.com/content/ab4b16…
"The US navy has been conducting FONOPS..sends warships through disputed waters to prevent a claimant from denying others access in violation of int'l law. Analysts have long pushed for a more effective US response to counter China’s mix of mil, paramil & econ coercive measures."
Read 16 tweets
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
Mark Valencia—Adjunct Senior Scholar, National Institute for #SouthChinaSea Studies, Haikou, China—uses Xinhua-like language to accuse @GregPoling @CSIS @AsiaMTI of "Beating the drum for the narrative of the Chinese '#MaritimeMilitia' threat" in #IPPReview
ippreview.com/index.php/Blog…
Valencia cited my piece with @KennedyMaritime in @ForeignAffairs, but that's a 2016 publication.

The latest is here: andrewerickson.com/2019/01/the-ch… & apdf-magazine.com/maritime-numbe….

Instead of piling on @GregPoling, let's "Seek Truth from (Many) Facts" regarding #China's #MaritimeMilitia.
And while we're at it, can those in the know give us the full scoop on #IPPReview?

"operated by International Public Policy Pte. Ltd., a Singapore-registered company which is independent of any organization"

ippreview.com/index.php/Inde…

Wording sounds rather abstract & mysterious..
Read 12 tweets
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
"I want to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of open societies.

…I’ll focus on #China, where President #XiJinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…
"Xi is trying to consolidate all the available info about a person into a centralized database to create a 'social credit system'..people will be evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a threat to the 1-party state. People will then be treated accordingly."
"#China is not the only #authoritarian regime in the world, but it is undoubtedly the #wealthiest, #strongest & most developed in machine learning & #AI.

This makes #Xi the #most #dangerous #opponent of those who believe in the concept of #OpenSociety."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…
Read 22 tweets

Related threads

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Adam Ni
@adam_ni
Thread on China's new defense white paper, China's National Defense in the New Era. This WP has just been released by the @chinascio. Press conference is happening now.

Thanks to you know who you are.

#China #PLA
@chinascio WP starts off with Section 1 looking at the "International Security Situation", highlighting that the world is undergoing changes "unseen in a century" with "prominent destabilizing factors and uncertainties in international security".

"The world is not yet a tranquil place".
@chinascio What are the profound changes as seen by China that is transforming the international strategic landscape?

Most prominently, WP points out the acceleration of the "realignment of international powers" with the "configuration of strategic power...becoming more balanced"
Read 32 tweets
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MissMAGA2016
@MissMaga2016
I’m taking bets that the UN will nominate #China.
Welp, I won my own bet, LOL. I'd say it's unbelievable, but it's not. What a clown show, SMH.

The UN just elected #China's rep to head their Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). I can just imagine the corruption that'll result from this.

JFC....just heard on OANN that China "swept up the votes" at the UN.
Read 12 tweets
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Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
@pdacosta
THREAD: Going out on a limb to say the United States needs more stringent anti-corruption laws and enforcement. opensecrets.org/news/2019/06/t…
"Trump’s business entanglements continue to leave him with positions, assets, trademarks and other business interests in more than 30 countries."
"Trump’s sprawling web of foreign properties and investments, which includes some projects completed during his presidency or still under development, reveals a litany of apparent efforts by foreign business leaders and governments to gain influence."
Read 27 tweets
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Thread: The Bank of #China is asking customers with #US dollars to exchange them for the local RMB currency, and giving rewards to those that do. This is an indication that the trade balance is getting tight due to the #tradewar and China needs to raise more foreign currency.
Here is further confirmation that #China is short of dollars - Why is #US dollar access so restrained in China as trade war rages on? Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks because of financial risks amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…
Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks given worries about financial risks amid the trade war - China holding onto US dollars by increasingly restricting business and individual transfers out of the country.
Read 13 tweets
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IndoPacific_SCS_info
@IndoPac_Info
#China's Military Modernization Push Remains a Work in Progress - China trails the #US in terms of nuclear attack submarines, aerial refueling & a sufficient amphibious capacity, & it is unlikely to close the gap in the immediate future. worldview.stratfor.com/article/chinas…
Over the past 20 years, China has made tremendous progress in improving its military capabilities, but its modernization program will remain a work in progress in the decade to come.
China trails the US in terms of nuclear attack submarines, aerial refueling & amphibious capacity. Beijing will continue to develop its capabilities on these fronts, but based on current projections, it will not reach parity with the US by 2030.
Read 19 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Okay, I think I figured out what is Trump's ultimate game in this escalated US-China trade tensions and I think he will get it. Will share my thoughts in a thread soon! 😎
1) What is Trump's ultimate game? RECIPROCAL TRADE & INVESTMENT. Pissed off about higher tariffs vs the US & non-tariff barriers. Regarding #China 🇨🇳, doesn't like forced tech transfers, Chinese industrial overcapacity, gov subs. But how to get this? Investment+Trade policy
2)Implemented #taxreforms that impacts 50% of global FDI stock & favors US as a destination; USD2trn of REPATRIATION of funds, lower retained earnings of foreign affiliates; higher INVESTMENT in the US b/c of expensing, re-shoring of manufacturing. Basically, good for earnings💪
Read 25 tweets

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