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#NorthKorea’s most recent missile launch sends a sharp message: KN23 ideal to range the US THAAD missile defense site in Seongju, South Korea, if launched at a different azimuth with the same range. 
Taking out/overwhelming missile defense installations in the South would be a core early-war objective for the KPA. The KN23, which we’re letting them test as a “very standard” SRBM, provides a very nice capability for that mission.
Increasingly clear that the problem the KN23 poses for allied missile defense isn’t concerning radar evadability, but gaps in interceptor coverage. 1/x
Every flight test of the missile has kept apogees between 50 km (May and July), and now 37 km (August 5). 2/x
We don’t have good data on the rest of the trajectory, or how many pull-up aeroballistic maneuvers are being conducted. But there’s a good chance most of the flight is happening in altitude ranges of 30 km and 50 km. 3/x
Why does that matter? Well. Neither the PAC-3 interceptor nor the THAAD interceptor cover that range.
But that’s not all bad news, right? After all, the KN23 has to come down to hit its target. Well... 4/x
But that’s not all bad news, right? After all, the KN23 has to come down to hit its target. Well... 4/x
If it really is capable of 9K723 (Iskander-M) like maneuvering, it could violently pull down at the very last moment, at great velocities. PAC-3, which would nominally be capable at that point, likely would still struggle. 5/x
The good news is North Korea doesn’t get to test against real interceptor engagements in peacetime so they’re left guessing too about just how well all this would work. But the KN23 is serious—and a big challenge for allied missile defense efforts. 6/6
Nothing about this is “very standard.” We’re squandering valuable time that Kim is using to improve his capability to threaten South Korea and US forces in South Korea.
Missile defense against #NorthKorea was always going to be a cat-and-mouse game. I’d assumed (through 2017) that Kim would prefer to go quantitative (saturate BMD with a ton of missiles); he’s doing that—but he’s also exploring qualitative BMD defeat.
