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1/ So the new UK Govt's negotiating tactic, as revealed by @tnewtondunn, is that the EU will have to 'give us a better deal' when it comes to the crunch because otherwise Ireland is 'f*****' by No Deal. Belt up for the EU's less than impressed response. thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/97…
2/ Both Steve Barclay and David Frost have raised this very point in recent meetings with EU officials, referring to studies that show Ireland would suffer more economically from No Deal than both the rest of the EU and the UK, plus all the knock-on implications for the border.
3/ The rest of the EU's approach has essentially been to follow Ireland's lead on the backstop. One official responded to this Cabinet minister's remarks by saying they'd 'leave it up to Irish what's in their interest'. If Dublin were to soften therefore, the others would follow.
4/ But pressure from the other Member States for it to do so will be very limited, especially given the extent of PM Johnson's demands. One diplomat described the threat as 'delusional', asking: 'Why would we move to make one of our own pay the price? We won’t go down that road.'
5/ This diplomat's view of the new PM's tactics and their likelihood of success: 'The current UK Government wants to make Ireland pay the price for three years of British political failure. I doubt that even the UK’s traditional friends will want to entertain this approach.'
6/ Must be remembered the EU is largely a club of small/medium-sized nations who are in it to amplify their presence/security in an uncertain world. So for them, the implications of one of their own being thrown to the wolves are seen as more damaging than the impact of No Deal.
7/ EU officials worry the UK side doesn't understand this and believes Brussels' resolve simply wasn't 'tested' enough by Theresa May because she didn't threaten to walk away. In particular they think Brits have a misguided impression that the EU always does last minute deals.
8/ As @DavidHenigUK and others have pointed out, there's a world of difference between how the EU treats a Member State in negotiations and how it treats what is in spirit at least a 3rd country. Official: 'It's wrong to think EU Council in October would do a last minute deal.'
9/ An EU source says that if the UK goes down the path of threatening to walk away 'the EU will just watch them choose that'. In October 'the choice for the UK may well be to ask for an extension or to choose No Deal. The EU cannot prevent the UK from choosing a No Deal Brexit.'
10/ Could PM Johnson have secured a time limit to the backstop or other tweaks? Perhaps. Officials and diplomats have speculated this may have been possible with a different approach. But given his demand to ditch the backstop entirely that's now 'water under the bridge'.
11/ Besides, Mr Frost made clear in meetings with the Commission that the Government's objections to Theresa May's deal aren't confined to the backstop. He suggested the UK wants sweeping changes to the whole package - both Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.
12/ He didn't specify exactly what, according to sources, but they expect the UK wants changes to the schedule of payments for the £39bn divorce bill to link it to a trade deal and a rewrite to rule out a Level Playing Field or Customs Union in the future relationship.
13/ One diplomat says: 'All that led us to one conclusion - the UK Government is not serious about a negotiation. It doesn’t want a deal and must truly believe No Deal is the best outcome for the UK. It’s disengagement tactics aimed at domestic preservation of the Tory party.'
14/ They say: 'It’s regretful. The EU will have deals with countries from Turkey to Ukraine and Morocco but not with its closest neighbour. But there is no negotiation if one of the two sides refuses to seriously engage.' The worry now is how long an ensuing stand-off would last.
15/ So that's where we are. The UK position has changed, but the EU is sticking to its guns. Both sides think the other is being unrealistic and are talking at cross-purposes. In the meantime, the atmosphere between them is markedly deteriorating and briefing skirmishes are back.
16/ The usual disclaimer: Yes, these are anonymous sources. It means they can speak more freely but also what they say is unofficial. Yes, there is an element of 'they would say that wouldn't they?' No, just because I report what the EU says doesn't mean I think it's the gospel.
