Profile picture
Jeffrey P. Snider
@JeffSnider_AIP
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Two important takeaways from today's European GDP estimates. First, Europe's economy had already turned sour at the very moment its Economists and officials were most confident. The inflection was January...2018.

alhambrapartners.com/2019/08/14/eur…
Germany is on the verge of recession, or is already in recession, because it has been at the leading edge of what is really causing this global mess. Again, inflection point is the same. January 2018.

alhambrapartners.com/2019/08/14/eur…
What happened to Germany is also happening elsewhere, meaning that while the German economy is leading it is by no means alone. Everyone is moving downward if so far to varying degrees.

alhambrapartners.com/2019/08/14/eur…
And finally, the second point. What happened in January 2018 that would've set the entire European system on this "unexpected" course? What is it that no one ever factors into their econometric equations? What is the thing nobody watches because why would they with all those QEs?
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jeffrey P. Snider
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JeffSnider_AIP see all

Profile picture
Jeffrey P. Snider
@JeffSnider_AIP
The question is, what has global bond markets so spooked? Using TIC, we can construct an answer.

The first part begins where the eurodollar system did: onshore/offshore dollar connections btw US banks & foreign subs.

alhambrapartners.com/2019/07/12/wha…
That's a QUARTER TRILLION in dollar funding sent offshore to those subs recently. And it reverses the trend established in the 2011 crisis (Euro$ #2). Suggests, emergency funding, or at least extra-ordinary conditions requiring re-activation.
On top of that, the repo market has been unbelievably active (wonder why repo rates are high, has nothing to do with T-bills). Again TIC. An additional $325.8 billion has been funded to offshore entities (called resales here).
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Tuomas Malinen
@mtmalinen
The discussion about negative rates and the "natural interest rate" (central bank fairy) should be directed to its effects to

1) The banking sector, and
2) The real economy.

We already know that the effects to the banking sector have not been good. 👇1/
ft.com/content/c1cb83…
What is missing, however, is the understanding on its effects to the real economy.

We've tried to raise this awareness several times, lately in the March issue of our Q-Review. 👇 2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
The Bank of International Settlements (the 'central bank of central banks') have also raised alarms, as nicely summarized by @MishGEA. 3/
moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo…
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
36. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria

#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1137566…
Read 294 tweets
Profile picture
Laurent Franckx
@LaurentFranckx
Thread on #GDP, the environment and happiness. As I have already repeatedly pointed out here, GDP is often charged with all the evils of the world, but that is mostly because both the people who use it and those who criticize think it measures things it doesni't measure /
First of all: most of the things I will write here are discussed at length in the excellent "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History" by @DianeCoyle1859 , a book that I consider a masterpiece of economics explained to a general public.
As was said about Hannibal Lecter, if you want to understand evil (or GDP 😉) you need to go back to its origins. Rudimentary attempts to measure national income have existed for centuries. Some of them were actually really valiant attempts, given the state of data at the time
Read 51 tweets
Profile picture
Filomena Rocha, President European Commission
@Filomen03258997
13. - Attempted coup in Venezuela with support from the US - 2019

#Venezuela #AttemptCoupInVenezuela #War #Warlords2019 #TheWorldWithVenezuela #ElMundoEstaConVenezuela #ElMundoEstaConVzla #Democracy #HumanRights #dignity #Peace #Love #Freedom #UNCharter
By @telesurenglish
Venezuela has emerged from the US attacks on its electrical system.
By @MaxBlumenthal
Terrible news for Little @marcorubio @AmbJohnBolton & Guadio’s gang, but great news for the people of Caracas:

The city’s free Metro system is coming back on line as Venezuela recovers from its curiously timed electricity outages.
Read 284 tweets
Profile picture
Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
Profile picture
Kristina Keneally
@KKeneally
Today we heard in #estimates that Minister Fifield has lodged 1 complaint/month so far this year:
January: Date of the Hottest 100
February: Alberici Corporate tax articles
March: Tonightly sketch
April: Black Comedy sketch ABC Indigenous FB
May: Alberici Innovation story.
We also heard in #estimates that Minister Fifield has been the first Communications Minister since Richard Alston to complain to ACMA (or its predecessor) about the ABC.

Alston complained about war coverage.

Fifield complained about a comedy sketch, and a comedy FB video.
Furthermore, Fifield complaint to ACMA about a FB video was rather pointless. ACMA has no jurisdiction over video content on Facebook. #estimates

Nonetheless Fifield says he complained ‘to make a point’ that ACMA has no jurisdiction over FB.
Read 6 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Pakistan #Abuja #Shenzhen #Intel #crimes #heritage #Vittoria #historical #rights #Solar #AUDUSD #Italia #RabindraBharathiUniversity #understanding #EU #GDP #SeriousConcerns #Putin #Iraq #USWNT #ZTE #Babylonians #UE #Europe #supply
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!