Thread by @HASHCIB

1/Acc. to @DoveyWan, who has a good prior track record of CT #China insights, and @PandaofBinance the recent #BTC dump could be attributed to a Chinese Ponzi scheme #PlusToken selling tens of 000s of BTC:

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161697857902039042?s=20

2/The list of addresses mentioned in the story(total ~276k BTC received,last txs>0.01 BTC):
A (last tx 31-07-2019) blockchain.com/en/btc/address…
B (last tx 26-05-2019)
blockchain.com/en/btc/address…
C (last tx 13-08-2019)
blockchain.com/en/btc/address…
D (last tx 04-04-2019)
blockchain.com/en/btc/address…

3/According to data by @CrystalPlatform wallet A belongs to @BixinIM bitcoin hosted wallet provider. It has been created 4 years ago, which is much longer than PlusToken exists.

4/Wallets B and D seem to have received most of their funds from @HuobiGlobal crypto exchange, and could potentially be "cold" wallets of the same exchange.

5/Wallet C could also be a "cold" wallet of the same exchange. According to @CrystalPlatform, It also received funds from Huobi-labeled accounts.

Funds from Wallet C have been recently sent to multiple addresses created specifically for those txs, where they remain parked

6/Looks like PlusToken accepted client funds to their Bixin and Huobi addresses - which allowed the clients to flag these wallets.
Yet its difficult to attribute all the BTC on flagged add-sses to PlusToken,as exchanges and hosted wallet providers usually aggregate client funds

7/Even if we assume that all of the ~276k BTC received were controlled by PlusToken, "only" 37.9k of them remain potentially "unspent" - i.e. just parked on separate specially created addresses.

This makes for a much smaller, albeit serious, selling pressure than feared

8/And we haven't seen any significant txs moving out of analysed wallets in the recent days, except for those 37.9k BTC getting broken-up and sent to newly-created addresses.

You can check for yourself using the wallet addresses from the earlier tweet.

9/The recent plunge in #BTC calls for a narrative, given how well its price responded just days ago to global macro events - while basically ignoring the very #bitcoin-favouring last 24h

10/Even if we assume the 37.9k BTC moved from Wallet C in the last 48h to be PlusToken exiting, the moves seem very unlikely to indicate a fraudster covering traces

These txs look like normal exchange fund-shuffling operations

Thanks to @CrystalPlatform for providing the data