Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning🦋. That was a rough economic day yesterday as the news was sobering from Asia to Europe (weakness everywhere😱).

Welcome to Q3 2019 - acceptance is not easy & took us a while but here we are.

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1161066990095593473

We got Indonesia exports today - expect a contraction but also don't panic as Indonesia is not trade exposed (as in share of GDP low). In case you are wondering, the contraction of regional exports are not contained - they impact investment.

Across Asia, firms are holding back.

Chart below shows GDP growth across Asia (just a simple average rather than weighted) & what do you see?

Investment contracting - sharpest for traders such as Korea and Singapore. Notice that China FAI slowed yesterday (nominal data so real is worse) but many sectors contracted

China FAI (nominal not real & we actually don't have the breakdown for real GDP for China in expenditure). Look at it. Private sector down, state investment holding the fort. And the details show a massive divergence - many are contracting sharply 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1161462281428819968?s=20

I smell FEAR 😱

Global equities 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

I smell FEAR 😱

US Treasury Curve

(btw, did the juxtaposition for you to see what it was the same time last year - a mirror image of each other). Who got that call right? Mr. Market is very very volatile.

Question: Where will we be 15 August 2020 ⁉️🧐

Weakness everywhere!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😱😱😱 (okay, I'm being histrionic here but many people sent me this after they watched my Bloomberg interview live 3 wks ago)

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1159625534646575104?s=20

Question: What would Benjamin Graham do on a day like this? Would he run or pick out securities being dumped by Mr. Market? How would he evaluate a security/index/etc?
@jasonzweigwsj
😉

Global equities in USD month-to-date (just 2 wks😬) AUGUST SALE TOTALLY HAPPENING!🤗

@jasonzweigwsj Old thread on PE & why you should be careful whenever you hear people on TV talking about some index being cheap. Since I wrote this thread (in response to some person saying SHCOMP is "discounted"), SHCOMP is now 2,783 & its level in Jan 2017 2,716. Yep.

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1107811654295642113?s=20

@jasonzweigwsj The Atlanta Fed puts US GDP at 1.9% for Q3 2019 (obvs this moves around a lot b/c it just takes high frequency monthly data & then does a quarterly forecast based on latest). Retail sales tonight.

Do you think the US economy will have a recession in 2020 (Pres elections Nov 3)?