Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning! It's Friday! Another emotionally exhausting week but u've made it 👏🏻:

Singapore just reported non-oil domestic exports and that's down -11.2%YoY from -17.4% in June. Electronics fell -24.2% from -31.9% 🇸🇬😬.

That's a wrap - Asian exports 📉& u know what that means

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1160743122541797376

Ready? Asian exports in July, from lowest to highest (%YoY):

🇸🇬Singapore -11.2%
🇰🇷Korea -11%
🇮🇩Indonesia -5.1%
🇹🇼Taiwan -0.5%

🇮🇳India +2.3%
🇨🇳China +3.3%
🇻🇳Vietnam +9.3%

What do u see? Clearly the biggest losers of weak trade are Korea & SG😱. Why? Exposure to tech & China 👈🏻

Singapore is a huge trader - merchandise exports >100% of GDP but if we only take non-oil domestic exports then 54% of GDP. On top of this, Singapore's services are very trade dependent. Details by product:
Electronic down -24.2%
Non-electronic -6.6%
Electronic & pharma key drag!

So u can see that Singapore's electronic exposure (similar to Korea) is making its downturn of the cycle much worse as electronics are very cyclical in nature. Anyway, let's look at destination🤗:
🇨🇳China -5% (improving from double digits contraction)
🇺🇸USA +12.3% (been positive)

EM -29.6% (told u - growth in EM soggy due to both the slowdown of China & tighter USD in 2018 & correction of imbalances)
EU 🇪🇺28 -2.5%
Japan 🇯🇵-44.2%
Malaysia -23.3% (Q2 GDP today)
India 🇮🇳-18.5% (likely petrol related)

USA 🇺🇸is BEST & positive driver of Singapore's exports 👏🏻

Let's look at S Korea, also a HUGE TRADER. Btw, Korea's 1st 20-day of Aug exports out next wk (cannot wait 🥳). July by product:
Chips -28.1% (ships was up but now down 😬)
Wireless equip -30.6%
Machinery -5%
Steel 21.7%
Autos +21.6%
Downturn of the electronic cycle a huge drag😱

By destination for S Korean:
🇨🇳China -16.3% 🥶
🇺🇸USA -0.7% (was positive) 😬
🇯🇵Japan -0.7%😬
🇪🇺EU 0.3%
🇻🇳Vietnam +7.8% (supply chain linkage + diversification of markets to VN from China by Lotte etc)

China (slowdown) + electronic exposure major drag for Singapore + South Korea

Bottom line: a) contraction driven by electronic downturn; b) massive exposure to China & China growth is decelerating & moreover it is sheltering its domestic demand via the current account (imports contracting due to weak demand & weaker FX&fiscal); c) US & EU still importing👈🏻

Summarized key cyclical & structural regional trends here. Enjoy!

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1161823635641790464?s=20

What I meant to say here is that if you look at China exports, which is growing (rounding up here) +1% ytd but imports are contracting then you see this:

The world is still buying more Chinese goods (or shall I say more integrated with China) while China is becoming more local👈🏻

So the key theme in the past decade & the upcoming decade is the same, unless something changes is:

The world is more integrated with China via China's export prowess & meanwhile China is becoming less integrated with the world with its decreasing imports/dependence on others👌🏻

That is a factual statement & not an opinion based on data. Something to think about while u go on ur Friday morning (or Thursday for non-Asian followers):

If exports are down in Asia, then u bet that INVESTMENT is down. Trade & investment go together 👌🏻👇🏻

In case u're thinking, well, well, well. That was so July & we're looking into end Q3 & early Q4 for some must-needed recovery (the elusive V-shaped chart). Just a friendly reminder that credit data foreshadows future activities & July loan data was down😬

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1160841814254878720?s=20