, 17 tweets, 14 min read Read on Twitter
Good morning all! 😎 Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
This has not come as a surprise! #AUDUSD (Inflation gauge) had for a long time been flirting with LT-trendline from 2008. This was a sign of weakness in inflation - which could only play out, if Oil dropped (like the Ending diagonal suggested) #HZupdates
Observe - a lot of downside in #AUDUSD to come, as I expect ~0.48-area to be the final LT-bottom. Hard drop in inflation ahead! #HZupdates
What does @DiMartinoBooth tells us about the outlooks for inflation? #HZupdates
#Copper has been telling the same story - and I think we have just started a MAJOR decline in Copper. Can bounce of course, but trend is down - and fast! Bottom will be below 2008 as major wave C unfolds #HZupdates
Remember my call on #EmergingMarkets last week? We are about to see the bottom fall out here. #Deflation coming #HZupdates
Where #Copper and #AUDUSD go - #EURUSD and #Gold go! Inflation gauges move together #HZupdates
Now (NOTICE THIS!) we are likely to see a pullback in #USD and hence a rally in #EURUSD. But - any talks of major top in USD should be ignored. This is an expected rally in #EURUSD which has been long due! It is final wave of wave B in large picture before crash! #HZupdates
Nothing has changed in the bigger #EURUSD-picture. We are to see a major bottom ~0.91 #HZupdates
Target for #DXY is ~107-109. Notice - initial pullback - before the launch! Fed will eventually step in as #USD soars. This will send USD much lower the coming years. #HZupdates
Long term, we will see #rates at much lower levels. But - we may ST be in for a surprise rate rally. I'm NOT 100% sure about this chart as it is difficult to fit into the overall narrative - however the technical outlook could suggest a pullback to ~2013-levels for TLT #HZupdates
What ever will be the catalyst for #Gold, then we will see much lower levels for yellow pet rock. Plummeting inflation expectations (pot. with rally in nom. rates?) will send Real Rates soaring. This will be toxic for Gold. LT-target=800 #HZupdates
Eventually, Gold will become safe heaven as the coming #GlobalDebtCrisis unfolds. The crisis will be sparked by rise in real rates due to inflation plummeting. We may also see nom. rates rise but eventually rates will plummet to new ATL in last phase of K's Winter #HZupdates
As #Gold declines, we will see #Miners drop to new lows. #GDX is about to plummet #HZupdates
Despite the coming #Deflation, #SP500 and US equities may see a final rally. This could be part of an inflow of #USD as a safe heaven. But - the declining momentum tells us not to be too optimistic - on the contrary! Major Bear Market will eventually set in! #HZupdates
Chart of TLT
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