, 14 tweets, 11 min read Read on Twitter
Good morning FinTwit 🙂 Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
Sentiment around wave Bs is distinct 😉"Enticing the Suckers to jump in". Wave B volume tends to be low. Well this is what we see as (see yellow marking)! Anybody who claims a major BULL market in Gold started in 2015 with 4 years of sideway trading- should reconsider! #HZupdates
And on Friday, while Gold Bulls cheered, #Gold hit overhead trendline in the major triangle and was forcefully rejected. Everybody is now long Gold!😉 But why? #Silver has not been supporting the rally. Far from - and looks very bearish at this point #HZupdates
What really drives price of #Gold is Real Rates. And Real Rates are driven by more than Nom. Rates. The last component is INFLATION EXPECTATIONS. They are plummeting very fast (as I have been expecting due to Copper and Oil charts) which drives Real Rates UP! #HZupdates
I called a top in #Oil earlier this year. It was wave B rally (inflation bounce), which topped. Now we are heading towards ~20USD pot. 10USD for Oil in this very clear Ending Diagonal pattern. This is deflationary - which will pull Gold down! #HZupdates
#Copper is about to roll over in a very convincing manner. This is deflationary and will pull down #Gold. It is a signal of Global recession!! #HZupdates
"But...but...Gold does well in crisis". No and yes! In the #DEFLATIONARY part of the crisis #Gold does horrible. In Q1-Q3 2008, gold fell >30% while equities dropped as well. The minute, Fed steps in FOR REAL (forget cuts) - is the moment Gold bottoms #HZupdates
In #Inflationary part of crisis, Gold does extremely well. I'm the greatest Gold Bull on Twitter! 😎 Only for now everything will be about liquidity (read: #USD). And DXY broke up last week! A major rally in DXY is setting in - while everybody is long Gold 🙃 #HZupdates
#USDJPY supports the Bullish view on #DXY. Bottoming and RSI and STOC on Weekly chart turning up. Major rally in USDJPY is coming! #HZupdates
And #EURUSD is also supporting a major rally in #DXY. The implications of this count is very(!) bearish for EURUSD. Watch out below. My LT-target remains 0.91! #HZupdates
Why #EURUSD should crash? Well - if #Fed is about to cut rates (let's see about that btw) - then ECB will have to do lot more to ensure EURUSD appreciation does not take place.... and maybe because of this! #HZupdates
That is all the #HZupdates for now! Gold target remains 800 USD as final wave C unfolds in the deflationary part of the crisis. As always I have perspectives on the rest of the market, which I share with subscribers. Have a great day! 😎
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