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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The niche Twitter Brexit / trade subset of trashing every possible alternative model to UK membership of the EU or no-deal. Because why compromise when you can remain pure?

Out in the real world however... well for one, shall we see how much pleading we'll do in the EU?
There is no significant trade agreement we can make with *anybody* that does not involve compromises on the UK side

The ideologues insist that it is all different of course, that a trade deal with the US / EU (delete as applicable) is absolutely fine but appalling with the other
We collectively underestimate the time that will be taken in future ensuring UK goods / services are not unfairly discriminated against. There will be plenty of pleading going on in Brussels, DC, and Beijing in the future...
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The promised trade thread. Someone contacted me to ask why countries conclude Free Trade Agreements if the economic benefits aren't that significant. Good question, so here's 10 reasons, counting down to the most important (on my assessment), with a few examples...
10. You have particular market access issues to solve, like one of your products being prohibited or discriminated against in the other market.

Least important as these are common, and other ways to solve them exist
9. You want to bring the other country into the global trade system. Also gain first mover advantage. Was once the case with China deals, could now be the case with EU-Mercosur.

Disadvantage, first mover v assessing what others managed to agree
Read 15 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Having read through the details, I am fairly certain the document in the Sunday Times is not old or a worst case scenario. What was published is also not a comprehensive picture of no-deal, but just many of the key issues.
We presume this means to say collaboration "with" the EU. Repugnant use of language about neighbours. And I see very little that is "wrong", what is published is mostly well nuanced
What's not in the document leaked? Agriculture exports (rumours of plans for sheep culls), UK services providers unable to obtain work visas, buying and selling with EU (e.g. parcel changes), change in EU imports from single market to duty free quantities - etc, etc
Read 10 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The details published in the Sunday Times today are not the worst case scenario, note the careful phrasing of this tweet.
This is also misleading... anything but admit that the leak is and remains the base case, not the worst or best

The no deal paradox, if shit isn't going to happen then we don't need months of intense preparation, but we can't admit shit is going to happen as that might scare people from no deal
Read 3 tweets

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