Thread by @EBKania

Thanks so much to the @Tech4GS team for launching my latest report and podcast! I was asked to explore whether the Chinese military might integrate emerging technologies into its NC3 in the future, and I've provided some tentative assessments on the issue: tech4gs.org/nc3-systems-an…

@Tech4GS To be honest, I found this topic very challenging to tackle, and aspects of my analysis are very tentative. I will very much welcome any feedback on this paper, and I hope that I can continue to refine my assessments and conclusions in the future.

@Tech4GS Here are some quick reflections on how I approached the topic. To start, the PLA today is at a uniquely transitional moment with regard to its NC3, transitioning from a monad to a triad. Certain decisions about its approach to command and control may not be fully finalized.

@Tech4GS The U.S. and Chinese militaries may approach the modernization of NC3 differently, because the U.S. is building upon an existing architecture of legacy systems, whereas China is starting out at a more nascent point in its development, which *might* be conducive to 'leapfrogging,'

@Tech4GS particularly at a time when the Chinese military as a whole has been directed to pursue military innovation and advance emerging technologies, ranging from artificial intelligence to cloud computing and fifth-generation telecommunications.

@Tech4GS There is only limited evidence that the PLA intends to or is currently considering incorporating such technologies into its NC3 in the near term, but certain applications and developments may have relevance, applicability to, or entanglement with elements of its nuclear posture.

@Tech4GS For instance, the PLA Rocket Force's emerging emphasis on 'rapid response' (快速反应) and its relatively integrated approach to deterrence and war-fighting implies that PLA/RF research involving target recognition and decision support may prove noteworthy.

@Tech4GS Increasingly, the PLA is integrating AI with space systems, including the launch of 'AI satellites' and application of machine learning to remote sensing. Potentially, this could contribute to improved early warning and situational awareness.

@Tech4GS The PLA has been exploring the adoption of cloud computing to enhance its command systems, including through a partnership with Sugon (曙光), which was recently added to the entity list. hpcwire.com/2019/06/26/sug…

@Tech4GS PLA strategists have discussed how 5G could enhance future command and control, and it has been used in some initial drills for communications, supporting mobilization, etc.

@Tech4GS In addition, advances in quantum cryptography and communications may provide a viable mechanism for communication with submarines in ways that facilitate command and control.

@Tech4GS The PLA's approach to command of strategic capabilities has been and remains highly centralized, directly through the Central Military Commission, as is the case for the Rocket Force and Strategic Support Force.

@Tech4GS I have joked that I have high confidence that at least one human will be fully in the loop for strategic decisions for the foreseeable future, and that's Xi Jinping. However, the PLA also appears enthusiastic about greater automation and intelligentization in certain contexts.

@Tech4GS The aggregate impact of these varied technologies on dynamics of strategic stability remains unclear. However, I conclude the inherent complexity and uncertainty of these nascent, untested technologies may create new risks, necessitating attention to safety and surety.

@Tech4GS This paper is far from perfect, and I'm sure there are numerous shortcomings in my analysis. However, I have tried to build upon the excellent research of a number of scholars and analysts whose works I highly recommend.

@Tech4GS Don't miss this excellent and important analysis by Lora Saalman on how the PLA may leverage AI in its nuclear posture: thebulletin.org/landing_articl…

@Tech4GS This report by @Fiona_Cunning on PRC NC3 in this @Tech4GS series is an invaluable contribution, and I was fortunate to have a chance to learn from her foundational research on these issues. tech4gs.org/fiona-s-cunnin…

@Tech4GS @Fiona_Cunning This piece by @soraywang on how quantum communications factors into PRC SSBN strategy is also excellent reading: thediplomat.com/2017/11/quantu…

@Tech4GS @Fiona_Cunning @soraywang And don't miss the rest of the papers in this @Tech4GS series! There are some really critical insights on a topic that has been understudied but is critically important. tech4gs.org

@Tech4GS @Fiona_Cunning @soraywang Finally, thanks again to @Tech4GS and the @Nautilus_Inst for organizing this initiative -- and for all of their support and assistant with the report!

@Tech4GS @Fiona_Cunning @soraywang @Nautilus_Inst I am also grateful for their patience through some issues with version control, and please forgive me for any typos that have escaped my attention. This was a busy summer, and the fall is going to be even busier...