At @CapX I introduce "Downing Street Cluedo": which of these 8 cards might Boris try to play next?
* Extend Article 50?
* Revive Theresa May's Deal?
* Resign - maybe letting Corbyn be PM?
He must make one of the biggest u-turns in political history to unlock a General Election. Which will he choose?
1. Find #secretloophole
(Work in progress)
3. Unveil cunning plan in Oct
4. Commons concedes
"Well done. It wouldn't be fair play to no confidence you after that"
5. No deal on 31st Oct
6. Get votes to call Election
Pass Brexit Day during Oct 19th-29th (by persuading 20 gvt opponents to support it?)
1. MPs do not vote for a deal if they believe/fear it is insincere.
- ERG & PM can't pass deal without Letwin, Boles, Gauke votes & pro-deal MPs with whip inc Cabinet ministers (oppose/resign to blow whistle)
If he is going for a deal, sincerely, pro-deal ministers & MPs should insist he gets extension first (under the law).
They will then vote for *his deal* (post-summit) in w/c 21st Oct.
Extension falls on *ratification*
- look sincere about Boris own deal (not just presenting May WA)
- win majority votes for deal, without anybody realising there are 15 insincere votes (Eg could be ERG ruse, not no 10 ruse)
- lose ratification.
Remedy: MPs no confidence gvt & put new PM in
If the govt does not have the numbers to survive (if it did find a legal route to No Deal) then no secret loophole could save it
- ERG votes for the deal, insincerely, as a no deal ruse
- gvt uses actual pro-deal votes (perhaps with further opposition abstentions) to then ratify the deal!
Equally bonkers & unlikely