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You know who I feel sorry for in Saudi Arabia right now? The Air Defense Forces officer in charge of the short range air defenses at the Abqaiq oil facility. He'll be lucky to get out of this with his life.
1/7
1/7
On paper, the point air defenses at the Abqaiq oil processing facility are rather formidable... by 1995 standards, at least.
A battery of Shahine SAMs (French system from the early 1980's)
3 or 4 anti-aircraft gun sections, each with 2 twin 35mm cannons and a fire control unit
A battery of Shahine SAMs (French system from the early 1980's)
3 or 4 anti-aircraft gun sections, each with 2 twin 35mm cannons and a fire control unit
Except that none of those systems were designed to intercept cruise missiles, and against aircraft-sized targets, the Shahine and Skyguard radars have a 20km detection range. Against smaller targets, like a drone or cruise missile, the detection range (& warning time) is shorter.
4/7 The attackers knew this, and didn't waste cruise missiles on the air defense sites, as shown in post-strike @planetlabs images. Perhaps they flew drones into the radars, but either way, if the strike package arrived simultaneously, it would easily overwhelm Abqaiq's defenses.
5/7 Even if the air defenses did respond, they were short-handed - the south-eastern and south-western gun emplacements were empty.
And with old equipment defending a site well inside of Saudi Arabia, these probably weren't the RSADF's elite troops.
And with old equipment defending a site well inside of Saudi Arabia, these probably weren't the RSADF's elite troops.
6/7 So, yeah, the Saudi military has some questions to answer, but at the same time, there wasn't a whole lot they could do, especially at the short-range end of the spectrum.
7/7 Addendum: I only figured out the Shahine site using Sean O'Connor's 2013 SAM site file. Confirming it was a bit of a chore - the identity of the vehicles wasn't apparent until I saw this 2018 Google Earth image. The silhouettes of the radar antenna and launchers are obvious.
8/7 Ack! Turns out I missed the Patriot battery (or two) located next to Abqaiq. My sincere apologies.
9/7 Yup, that's definitely a Patriot battery to the east of Abqaiq. Looks like it was fairly empty on September 16, though.
(Aspect ratio on that Planet image might be weird, had to play with it in Powerpoint to get it to display right)
(Aspect ratio on that Planet image might be weird, had to play with it in Powerpoint to get it to display right)
10/7 The Patriot site to the southwest of Abqaiq is also apparently real. A @planetlabs image taken earlier today shows that it is occupied.
After dinner I'll start a new thread on the specific problems faced by the defending forces.
After dinner I'll start a new thread on the specific problems faced by the defending forces.
