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OK, so here is #BrexitDiagram post-Supreme Court ruling, and in light of Corbyn and others calling for Johnson to resign, but in his first statement saying he is still intent on getting a Deal
Series 3, Version 22
Series 3, Version 22
Now we know the outcome of the Supreme Court case, it simplifies the diagram a lot.
The major questions now: does Johnson resign (probably not) and then does he face a Vote of No Confidence now (more likely than not I think)
The major questions now: does Johnson resign (probably not) and then does he face a Vote of No Confidence now (more likely than not I think)
Even if Johnson manages to see it through to the European Council on 17 October (only a 25% chance I think now), he could then *still* face a Vote of No Confidence afterwards.
The overall impact:
- General Election still by far the most likely outcome
- Chances of No Deal 31 October down a bit
- Chances Johnson's time as PM ends prematurely up
- General Election still by far the most likely outcome
- Chances of No Deal 31 October down a bit
- Chances Johnson's time as PM ends prematurely up
As ever, high res images, PDFs etc. on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
I will update this further as the day goes on if anything changes!
/ends
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
I will update this further as the day goes on if anything changes!
/ends
One further note: Dominic Grieve has said he thinks a further prorogation - other than what prorogation is actually for - is now not possible. So further prorogation has been removed from the diagram.
A few corrections in V22.1 now! But odds and routes unchanged.
