Thread by @jonworth

The day after the Supreme Court judgment we need to once more think: what next?

And specifically as pretty much all UK political parties say they want a General Election (GE), are the parties being honest about this?

First a technical point: 25 working days are needed to organise a General Election

Count forward 25 working days from today... and you get 31 October. #Brexit day.

🚨 The UK now cannot hold a General Election before exit day 🚨

Of course there is the interim stage: that the Prime Minister has to go to the European Council and request a Brexit delay, something Johnson has said he will not do.

Holding an election until that extension is secured is dangerous.

*** TORIES ***
Wanted an election 15 Oct so as to be able to threaten EU "a better Deal or No Deal" then go to the country. Have sounded less keen about a GE since.

➕ They're ahead in polls. FPTP means 33% might be enough for a majority. Johnson supposedly an electoral asset.

➖ Their Brexit by 31 Oct policy is almost impossible, meaning Farage roars back. What would their Brexit policy be? Lost out to Corbyn during campaign last time. What do they do about the 21 MPs who had the whip removed?

*** LABOUR ***
Have repeatedly said a GE is fine, providing No Deal on 31 October is definitely ruled out.

➕ Have said repeatedly they want a GE, can't back out. Corbyn a decent GE campaigner. Amend the Deal then Referendum position will probably hold now.

➖ Weak polling position (3rd behind Lib Dems in some polls). Trying to please everyone Brexit position ends up pleasing no one. Leader unpopular outside of narrow Labour circles.

*** LIB DEMS ***
➕ Good poll position, building on good EP election results. New and energetic leader. Clear Brexit position.

➖ FPTP has always disadvantaged them - would their members actually sooner stop Brexit *first*?

*** BREXIT PARTY ***
➕ Now GE can only happen after 31 Oct know they can win support back from Tory Party. Media still loves Farage.

➖ Could still be left without any seats due to FPTP. If Brexit actually happened without a GE then it's mission accomplished for them.

*** SNP ***
➕ Polling v strongly in Scotland, would likely wipe out the Tories

➖ None as far as I can tell

*** GREENS ***
➕ Clear Remain stance means would do solidly in vote percentage terms

➖ Screwed by FPTP. Better to seek other ways to stop Brexit?

*** PLAID CYMRU ***
➕ Clear Remain stance and party gaining in support and coherence in Wales

➖ None as far as I can tell - any gains would be welcome

So while everyone has been paying lip service to wanting an election, pretty much all the parties (SNP and Plaid Cymru the only real exceptions) see downsides to an election too.

So could another way - a referendum *first* - actually be a runner?

/ends