I have had several questions like this one:
"What use is a long term average?"
referring to the fact that the work of Nikolov and Zeller (@NikolovScience) produces, for any one hard surface planet, a single number: a baseline global average temperature.
This series of Tweets (labeled [N&Z THEORY] to help follow them) is intended to provide a meaningful answer to that question.
The significance of this result for analyzing the climate of any hard surface planet is *not* the value of the average produced.
(The term "planet" in this context also refers to smaller hard surface planetary bodies, such as moons.)
In fact, we will usually already know the value.
Rather, its significance comes from the implications of the fact that it *can* be accurately produced!
I'd like to begin explaining that assertion on my part by using an analogy:
In 1887, Albert Michelson and Edward Morley conducted a now famous physics experiment to confirm the existence of the aether. Their experimental device operated properly and...
produced a single result: There was no aether.
This was a shock to the science community of the day because nearly everyone had believed the aether theory. But science regrouped and found that it could develop workable theories without any references to aether.
This despite the fact that aether had previously played a central role in scientists' worldview.
In the case of @NikolovScience their experimentally-derived paired-exponentials formula performed appropriately and produced a single result: There is no need to...
... make reference to the CO2 concentration when calculating a planet's surface temperature.
This will no doubt come as a shock to today's climate science community because nearly everyone believes the GHE theory. But, assuming no serious flaws are found...
...in the seminal 2017 paper from @NikolovScience -- and so far none have been, as far as I know -- climate science will need to regroup and develop workable climate models that incorporate only very limited forcing effects from CO2.
There is reason to believe..
... that this will not be as difficult to accomplish as it may seem to you right this minute, but that is a topic for a separate string of Tweets at some point. This is enough to digest for the time being.
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