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I understand why the global manufacturing slowdown is commonly attributed to Trump's tariffs. He has after all, threatened tariffs on pretty much everyone.
But (to date) he has only put broad based tariffs on China.
And the US is actually a bright spot for the euro area
1/x
But (to date) he has only put broad based tariffs on China.
And the US is actually a bright spot for the euro area
1/x
The data of course lags (last data point is July) and the latest survey data points to a future fall in US imports. But what shows up in the data for the euro area?
a) Turkey's slump
b) Brexit (see UK line)
c) and end to a period of unusually strong exports to China
2/x
a) Turkey's slump
b) Brexit (see UK line)
c) and end to a period of unusually strong exports to China
2/x
The US data for 19 shows flat imports for Germany, but strong growth in imports from France ... not the usual pattern for sure, but Germany cannot expect to always come out on top. The overall euro area is still benefiting from the spillovers from US demand growth
3/x
3/x
i.e. "Trump" isn't a sufficient explanation for the current weakness in European data.
4/4
4/4
