Thread by @syrpis

Let me have another look at the options facing the opposition in relation to a possible Government of National Unity (GNU) or caretaker PM. Thread. 1/21 (sorry)

The opposition has to decide whether to replace PM Johnson; and if so, when to replace him; who will replace him; and what the new PM will do when in office. 2/

Many (myself included) think that they should act now. Some though would prefer to wait til late October, once Johnson has failed to get a new deal, and once he has been forced by the Benn Act to ask for an extension. 3/

Those arguing for delay are (I think) motivated primarily by electoral concerns; they want Johnson to demonstrate that he has failed, and that he has been forced to break his do or die promise to leave the EU by Oct 31. 4/

I see all that; but there are huge risks. First, Johnson remains as PM for an extra few weeks, capable of doing damage. Second, he may find ways around the Benn Act (another, much shorter, prorogation is not out of the question). 5/

And third, he may find a way to ask for an extension which some in the EU may be tempted to reject.

Fwiw, I don't think he will succeed, but the real risk is there. 6/

For those (and other) reasons, the opposition is close to agreeing to VoNC Johnson. They need a HoC majority (and the support of some Tory rebels). And they need to be sure, before they act, that there is someone who can better command the confidence of the HoC. 7/

The only way to determine that is to sit down and discuss it. They need to decide on two key questions: who the new PM will be (and what Govt will they lead); and what the new PM's mandate will be. 8/

There are, it seems, enormous divisions between them... on both questions. The leadership question has consumed most of the debate, but there is also big disagreement on the mandate question. I'll look at that first. 9/

Some would prefer a limited mandate. The new PM should get an extension from the EU (as per the Benn Act), and then call an immediate GE, in which the various parties can make their (very different) Brexit pitches. 10/

The result of that would be that the substantive Brexit decision is deferred until after the GE (eg in November). At that GE, a new mandate would be sought. All the options - from no deal to revoke - would be sure to be represented. 11/

Others have a rather more substantial GNU in mind. This GNU (as opposed to the caretaker PM above) would govern for 6 months or more, and would attempt to settle the Brexit question, in most accounts, via a people's vote. 12/

Manifestly, it would be harder for the opposition parties to form a GNU, than to agree on a caretaker PM. As said above, they need to sit down and discuss what they want, and decide what level of agreement is possible. 13/

My sense is that the GNU project is, as result of the divisions between the opposition parties, not only on Brexit but also on everything else, doomed to fail. But I may be wrong. I also worry about the legitimacy of a GNU purporting to settle Brexit. 14/

What sort of mandate would it have? Could it purport to settle Brexit, for example, by offering a PV in which the sort of leave option preferred by most leavers is not made available? 15/

The leadership question is bound up with the mandate question. In brief, the narrower the mandate, the less it matters who the caretaker PM is. The key (else this will collapse in acrimonious failure leaving us on the brink of no deal) is to reach agreement. 16/

Many on the Labour side say that it should 'by rights' be Corbyn. My sense is that it could be Corbyn, but that there are others who would be more likely to attract the necessary cross-party support. 17/

Moreover, I don't think that Corbyn should want it to be Corbyn. The caretaker PM will be painted by Johnson as the face of the remainer Parliament, the leader of the coup that sought to stop Brexit. 18/

If it is Corbyn, it will be easy for Johnson to direct all the vitriol his way. I think Johnson's task becomes much harder if, eg, it is moderate respected Tory rebel who asks for an extension and calls a GE. 19/

So... to sum up... the opposition need to sit down and determine when they will act, who the new PM will be, and what they will have a mandate to do. A lot depends on the extent to which they can agree. 20/

Even if they disagree profoundly, they *should* be able to agree on a process (involving a caretaker PM) to get an extension from the EU and call a GE. The alternative is leaving power in Johnson's hands. Which doesn't seem sensible... 21/21