So I hate to be a #Brexit downer. But signals I am getting this morning from very well placed EU sources is much, much more cautious. Odds of a deal this week - basically zero. Odds of a deal by 31 October? "1%". Why? For all the improved atmospherics, substance is BIG problem 1/ 
First point. EU capitals continue to see the risk of a NEGATIVE surprise. "We should not forget that all this is viewed in No10 through the next election & unity of the party. Everything else is secondary." Officials believe that if Boris or Cummings believe it's better to 2/
change tack again, they could do that quickly. Events of the past week have shown "they don't mind breaking rules or destroying relationships if need be." So EU capitals are mindful of this. Second: while noises out of Bxl & TF50 are positive, substance remains a challenge. 3/
So is mood music positive because no one wants to be responsible for a breakdown? "The issues are damn complicated." View on EU side remains that if you don't use 2018 BS text it gets very difficult to find workable technical & legal solutions. One senior EU official says 4/
"This is easy at levels of abstraction between BJ and the Taoiseach. But to all answers TF50 is asking, the UK has no answer." Lots of sense of deja-vu. That @DavidGHFrost & @SteveBarclay are repeating conversations had with the previous negotiating team in 2018. Another 5/
official says "Good intentions are no good. We need a legally robust text." The discussions I've had suggest a deal at the Council is basically zero. "Can @MichelBarnier report substantial progress? At the moment not." Most likely outcome seems to be one whereby Council will 6/
give Barnier instruction to keep negotiating. Perhaps another Council at end of month as I've argued for some time. But folks I'm talking to - well placed - even sceptical a deal can be done by 31 Oct. So we're looking at full implementation of Benn Act & 3 month A50 extension 7/
On @LeoVaradkar & @BorisJohnson meet: "Neither leader can give us any indication of how it works." So UK is legally in UK CU, but administratively in EU CU but "on paper you have to be clear, and then it becomes difficult. When you put it down legally NI is either in or out 8/
and then it gets hard for DUP and the Tories." Effectively, this is a customs & regulatory border in the Irish Sea "with all the consequences for GB" this carries. So deal is technically doable; on basis of 2018 backstop text. But then politics in London begins to look v diff 9/
"We fail to see that the political conditions have changed so dramatically so everything that wasn't possible for May is possible for Johnson." DUP holds key - then a chain reaction with ERG and need to counteract loss with Labour rebels. My chats suggest Labour numbers 10/
could be in 5-10 range. Ministers took heart when 19 Lab backbenchers called for 2016 ref to be honoured "without delay." But does not mean the 19 will vote for any deal. BOTTOM LINE: a very BIG note of caution. Many on EU side still see delay as much more likely than deal ENDS
