Thread by @pmdfoster

So. Will @duponline @DUPleader agree to @BorisJohnson #brexit deal?

Is it all just bluster, or will it emerge that the DUP horse was led to water and - when confronted with pressing button on new world - refused to drink? /1

@duponline @DUPleader @BorisJohnson Because the real hard issue is that @BorisJohnson buccaneer agenda means that Northern Ireland and Great Britain would move into very divergent realities - however you dress that up.

The DUP is having its face pushed hard up against the glass by this deal /2

@duponline @DUPleader @BorisJohnson There is talk they are "under pressure" to cave in - but viewed another way it is @BorisJohnson who is under pressure.

He's the one with the "do or die" Oct 31 deadline. The DUP might not feel so bothered about that.

But to the issues... /3

@duponline @DUPleader @BorisJohnson The fundamental one, it seems is not VAT etc, but the consent mechanism.

Tl;dr The DUP had an effective veto in the original Johnson plan; now they have lost it in the complex consent mechanism that has been designed by negotiators. /4

@duponline @DUPleader @BorisJohnson The point is that no-one gets a 'veto' in the new arrangement - not Brussels, not Dublin, not nationalists and, no, not the Unionists either.

Dublin has made a big move on this, but the DUP fear is that it never really gives them a shot at exiting the arrangement. /5

@duponline @DUPleader @BorisJohnson That said, some of the mechanism, I udnerstand has been mishcharacterised.

The characterisation by @tconnellyRTE and others that Sinn Fein can collapse Stormont to keep the backstop, isn't quite right. /6

The @TomMcTague understanding - no point in collapsing Stormont as UK would convene MLAs and have a count based on a majority that voted - is correct.

BUT that doesn't change fact: No DUP veto. /7

@TomMcTague The DUP have been asking for a single party veto under weighted majority - the system is v complex - but in essence it would give them a veto. They wont get it. /8

@TomMcTague So will the DUP hold out? There is still hope, even expectation in Brussels, that they will move.

The 'hold out' over VAT may also be to give time to try and forge a united position.

Yesterday it seemed as if there was a 7/3 split in favour - Wilson/Dodds/Campbell agin /9

@TomMcTague But what option does the DUP really have?

They can block the deal (effectively, since seems Johnson doesn't have numbers without them) and then face either

a) No Deal
b) Delay, election - no Brexit /10

@TomMcTague That would be a huge call, but one is minded of @NigelDoddsDUP saying the DUP would rather stay in the EU than risk the Union. /11

bbc.com/news/uk-northe…

@TomMcTague @NigelDoddsDUP Arguably, having conceded the regulatory alignment piece and - inexorably - a customs arrangement/filter in the Irish Sea, what was left? So maybe it's only a matter of time. As I say, quiet confidence in Brussels. But never count DUP chickens til theyve hatched.
12/ENDS