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, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Right then

It's the pre #EUCO #BrexitDiagram you have been waiting for!

V29, based on knowing we have a framework for a Deal
I admit V28 put the chances of Johnson even getting a Deal as too low - only .2

However the total impact of him having done so is not that significant, because the chances this works in London are v slim still, due to the DUP (still only 10% chance Deal passes)
This also accounts for there being the extra session of Parliament on 19 Oct

And also Labour firming up its position on #PeoplesVote
In comparison to V28 from end of last week:
1% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
3% ⬇️⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
13% ⬇️ Stalemate
44% ⬇️⬇️⬇️ General Election 2019
11% ⬇️⬇️ General Election 2020
18% ⬆️⬆️ #PeoplesVote 2020
10% ⬆️⬆️⬆️ Brexit with Deal
Here's the direct link to the high res PNG:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And all the files etc. will be here shortly:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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Related hashtags

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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK.

This changes the whole arithmetic and procedure for tomorrow, if Speaker allows it to be voted on.

With Labour backing this will likely pass. So Johnson MUST ask for an extension. MPs will not be bounced into a decision.
I have also hence deleted my vote prediction tweets for tomorrow, because it is now highly likely that all of this will not actually come to a vote.

As Boles, Letwin and Hammond, P are backing the Amendment, it's odds on to pass.
Also note to #EUCO, @eucopresident, Macron, Merkel et al - that extension request is going to be coming!
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I’m anti Brexit. I think this endeavour is foolish.

But doing it this way is extremely foolish. Whatever your view of Brexit.
First: there will be no impact assessment on the costs of this Deal available to MPs tomorrow

How can MPs make a judgment without that?
Second: the text of this Deal came out yesterday. Do MPs understand it? If they don’t, does anyone fully understand it yet?

- 63 pages Revised Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement

- 26 pages Revised Political Declaration

- 3 pages Unilateral Declaration of Consent
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Myth building about Jeremy Corbyn

A thread
On Saturday 19 October - starting at 0930 - there is an extra session about the Brexit Deal in the House of Commons

On the same day at 1830 Jeremy Corbyn is due in Liverpool at a rally events.labour.org.uk/event/283916
This rally was announced when the idea of a Saturday session had been floated, but not confirmed

We have no evidence whatsoever to indicate that Corbyn will NOT be in the Commons
Read 19 tweets

Related threads

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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE
@fascinatorfun
1/Listening to the C4 Con leadership debate.

All “delivering Brexit”

#Gove. Opened his mouth and lost the first Q
#Stewart. Cleverer response “listened to Corbyn yadda”
#Raab. Kept his voice lower but Blah.
#Javid Same but at least talking about addressing issues.
#Hunt. Same
2/. Politics of fear re Corbyn.

Really pretty wet.

Hope it improves.
3/. #Raab didn’t deliver because resigned as a matter of principle.

This is reallyrather tragic.

At least #Stewart is saying they cannot reopen the WA and challenging #Raab on the HOW?

Especially HOW in No deal.

#Raab really is remarkably dim.
Read 39 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Do leader really want an endless series of cliff-edges? Barnier fears long extension takes pressure off - but there are 'decision points' still in a long extenson: EP elections, EP sitting, UK Party Conferences. Some MS saying "do we need to decide now" - no, but then what? 1/
Once UK has agreed to hold EP elections, once it has done so, door is open to longer extension, inertia - and rising likelihood Brexit doesn't happen. It dies a slow death. EU leaders also get to park the issue while UK spends some time shredding itself. /2
Will take real political will to force a hard decision point on UK (revoke v no deal) which as @bopanc says, isn't really there. No appetite for a 'no deal'.

But as last #EUCO showed, forcing decisions on UK is hard. Both leaders risk splitting parties if they move. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So what happens now in #Brexit? On Eurostar heading back to London from Bxl (again). A few thoughts based on chats over the last 2 days in light of today's defeat that everyone in Bxl was expecting. Short #Brexit thread
Most imp decision for UK now is EP elex. Without that, UK is heading to no deal between 12 Apr-22 May, with a weekend in April most likely date. No glide path. EU officials believe the time between the last #EUCO and 10 April #EUCO will "inform us of all we need to know" 1/
Or as another EU official put it: "the glide path is now." No deal of course not EU's preferred outcome; but EU officials consistently argued to me this week that leaders have now come to terms with this possibility & recognise a deal takes 2; not in their gift to deliver one 2/
Read 13 tweets
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Lucas Guttenberg
@lucasguttenberg
1/The election of @_A_K_K_ , the announcements of @EmmanuelMacron, the possible deal between @EU_Commission and Italy - what does this all mean for Eurozone reform?
In short: Nothing. Because the ship will sail tomorrow and will not come back any time soon.

A thread pre-#EuCo:
2/ The Euro Summit will sign off tomorrow on next steps in 3 areas of Eurozone reform: Banking union, crisis management, and fiscal policy. Rather than kicking the can down the road again, it will define the political perimeter in each of these areas for the foreseeable future.
3/ On banking union, the summit will adopt the rules for using the backstop for the Single Resolution Fund and the conditions under which the backstop can see the light of day before 2024. The ESM treaty will be changed accordingly in the near future.
Read 11 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
So, the end of another week of Brexit.

What have we learnt?
Well, about as much as we might have expected, i.e. not much
The pre-#EUCO sense had been that there'd be no big progress, and certainly no deal, and that is seemingly where we've got to
Read 15 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
A thread on how the Art.50 talks might move on:

1/
So we now have some sense of where next sides are on all the major issues: Phase 1, transition and the New Relationship. Sure, it's patchy but we know considerable more than we di

2/
Rather than break things down in huge detail, let's take a more practical approach and think what needs to be done and when

3/
Read 25 tweets

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