Thread by @socmdm

Our #SMDM19 keynote starts very soon (8:45am PT). Watch Dr. Paul Slovic (@PaulatDR +@UOPsych) speak live at ow.ly/PnO450wNjGv

We see an inverse relationship between risk and benefit #smdm19

This has led us to the affect heuristic--a concept seen through three examples. (1) Differences in interpreting probability and frequency #smdm19

(2) pseudo certainty. 100% of anything looks good even if it is an illusion. Feelings influence our judgement #smdm19

Unfortunately, we can have an analyst at our side to help us make decisions, but research shows that a bit of introspection can help us make more rational decisions. An interesting application of slow and fast thinking #smdm19

Fast thinking is easy, feels right, and usually works but can lead to mistakes, especially when it comes to valuing human lives. Slow thinking also has biases...makes us feel certain lives are deserving of punishment, not protection #smdm19

The arithmetic of compassion: feelings cannot do math. We have to use the parts of our brains that can do math in order to make decisions about the protection of human lives

How should we value lives? #smdm19

Even the well known Prospect Theory does not perfectly predict how we do value lives in reality #smdm19

When we look at groups of victims, often times we see atrocities and do nothing. There are countless examples of this and the high value placed on individual identified lives #smdm19

So @PaulatDR presents the tweaked version of Prospect Theory that takes compassion (or lack thereof) into account #smdm19

@PaulatDR When you state your values, you don't need to justify them. But when you make a choice you have to defend to others and maybe yourself why you make that choice. There is a disconnect between stated values and values revealed by our actions. This is the prominence effect #smdm19

@jzerz *can't have an analyst! Sorry for the typo #smdm19

@PaulatDR Most perpetrators of violence believe they are doing the right thing. Non-relevant biases+ psychic numbing and security prominence create support for policies that devalue lives of millions #smdm19

@PaulatDR This has implications for rationing medical care and resource allocation + health risk communication. More at arithmeticofcompassion.org #SMDM19