, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Looks like China is front-running the mini-deal ...

Pork exports already soaring ...

1/x
At the $100m a month pace of July and August, pork exports would reach $1.2b -- easily a new high. And a bigger number isn't at all implausible

2/x
Of course, reaching the pre-trade war total for ag -- let alone going well above it -- will be hard if China doesn't also resume soybean purchases

3/x
The mini-deal shouldn't be all that hard to reach, as both sides are only agreeing to steps that they basically wanted to anyway. China needs to import some US ag this year. & the US likely didn't want to put tariffs on $150b of consumer goods and risk a broader slowdown.

4/x
See Clete Willems (former Trump trade/ econ official) here

scmp.com/economy/china-…
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