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, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Reasons I am not looking fwd to modelling a Dec. 2019 election:
High individual level volatility: britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/…
High aggregate volatility (polls now look v different to 2017 results)
Strong incentives for tactical voting across both Leave/Remain wings, but difficulties in coordination. Between 1/10th and 1/3rd of tactical votes go in the "wrong" direction papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… (4/n)
Spoiler effect of minor parties/candidates (Change, independent conservatives) (5/n)
Possibility of further (non-uniform) swing according to constituency opinion on Leave (exhausted after 2017?) (6/6)
If this link doesn't work for you, try papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… or rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111… (£)
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Chris Hanretty
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Utterly tedious thread on student voting starts now... (1/16)
In 2017/18, there were 1,885,000 UK students studying in higher education. Of these, 1,442,000 were studying full-time researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi… (2/16)
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Chris Hanretty
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The past 48 hours in Hong Kong, a thread... (1/8)
On Thursday, Andy Chan, leader of a pro-HK independence party, was arrested at the airport hongkongfp.com/2019/08/30/lea… (2/8)
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Chris Hanretty
@chrishanretty
I'm in my second week @politicsANU. It's great and the people are really friendly, but what I'm most excited is the high quality of Australian electoral data. Let me count the ways (1/5)
.@AusElectoralCom doesn't just give you results for each district, you get results for *each polling place* (groups of around 1500 voters) tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDownloads… (2/n)
What if you don't know where those polling places are in relation to a district? How about a flat CSV file with lat/long coordinates! tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDownloads… (3/n)
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