Really think the Tories are in the midst of the most terrible error. Huge risks in a GE. (1) Remainers' last chance - they may well coalesce around Labour, and vote tactically. /THREAD
(2) Corbyn the campaigner. Just like in 2017, they're riding to his rescue when he's at his lowest ebb. He wants to get out and give speeches about austerity. It will re-energise him. They've got him hemmed in, and they're about to let him out of his box.
(3) SNP and Lib Dem risk. Tories may do better in Scotland than they fear, but they're going to lose at least 5, maybe up to 10/11 seats there - and c15-20 in suburban London/ England to the LDs.
(4) Sticky Labour voters. As soon as the GE is announced, Lab numbers will rise as d/k and won't vote return 'home'. And are the people of Wrexham, Blackpool, Grimsby really going to compensate BoJo for losing 30 seats to SNP/ LD? I doubt it.
(5) Labour campaigning. The public like nationalisation and the abolition of tuition fees. Yes #Brexit election, but those policies will now get another airing. And 400k+ members will make a splash.
(6) Huge uncertainty. Look at any proper evidence, and it says 'the public don't know what to think'. Massive % of don't know. You're about to force them to decide. I'm willing to bet that a pretty detested ten-year-old govt won't come off well.
This is the *classic* bully's error - overconfidence, sloppiness, lack of empathy, failure to prepare, big picture guff. I have to say that I don't give the Tories more than a 30%, 40% chance of holding on. /END
