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The results of the YouGov #GE2019 MRP model are finally here:

Con – 359 seats / 43% vote share
Lab – 211 / 32%
SNP – 43 / 3%
LD – 13 / 14%
Plaid – 4 / <1%
Green – 1 / 3%
Brexit Party – 0 / 3%

Conservative majority of 68

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-ele…
For an overview of the results and how our MRP model works, see @anthonyjwells’s explainer here: yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…

For more in-depth nuggets from the results, keep reading this thread
Which seats are changing hands?

We have the Conservatives making 47 gains (almost all from Labour), SNP making 8 gains and the Lib Dems 4. Labour win no new seats. Full list in the chart

yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…
Labour’s “Red Wall” is crumbling, with the Tories sweeping through Con-Lab battleground seats. Of 76 such seats Lab won in 2017 with a margin of less than 8,000, the Conservatives are set to win 43

yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…
Despite increasing their vote share from 8% to 14%, the Lib Dem seat tally only rises from 12 in 2017 to 13. They look likely to win 4 seats but lose another 3.

yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…
The Brexit Party’s refusal to stand down in all seats is hurting the Tories more than Labour in key marginals. We’ve identified 8 seats where the Brexit Party presence is preventing a Conservative victory.

yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…
YouGov #GE2019 MRP model seat results in Scotland:

SNP – 43 seats (+8 from 2017)
Con – 11 (-2)
Lib Dem – 3 (-1)
Labour – 2 (-5)

yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…
YouGov #GE2019 MRP model seat results in Wales:

Labour – 24 seats (-4 from 2017)
Con – 12 (+4)
Plaid – 4 (n/c)

yougov.co.uk/topics/lifesty…
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YouGov
@YouGov
Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Voting intention among 2017 CON voters
Con - 73%
Brexit Party - 14%
Lib Dem - 9%

Voting intention among 2017 LAB voters
Labour - 55%
Lib Dem - 21%
Green - 8%
Con - 7%
Brexit Party - 7%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Voting intention among CON+LEAVE voters
Con - 77%
Brexit Party - 19%

Voting intention among LAB+LEAVE voters
Labour - 43%
Brexit Party - 25%
Con - 19%

(Fieldwork 17-28 Oct)

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
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YouGov
@YouGov
With Labour reportedly now willing to back a general election, it looks like we're set for an election in December. Our most recent voting intention poll had the parties on:

Con - 36%
Lab - 23%
Lib Dem - 18%
Brexit Party - 12%
Green - 6%
Other - 6%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
And our most recent survey on who people think would make the best Prime Minister showed:

Boris Johnson - 43%
Jeremy Corbyn - 20%
Don't know - 34%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Earlier this week we found that Britons expect the Conservatives to win the most seats and votes at the forthcoming election yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 5 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
For #WorldEnergyDay here's the % of Britons who have a favourable view of each type of energy:

Solar - 86%
Offshore wind - 81%
Hydro - 80%
Onshore wind - 76%
Bio-fuels - 75%
Geothermal - 58%
Gas - 40%
Nuclear - 33%
Oil - 23%
Coal - 20%
Shale gas - 14%

yougov.co.uk/topics/science…
Our research shows that Britons have overwhelmingly positive opinions of renewable energy sources - even among those who also have a favourable view of fossil fuels

yougov.co.uk/topics/science…
In good news for clean energy campaigners, most Britons support renewables expansion, and those with favourable views of oil, gas and coal don't support greater use of those resources
yougov.co.uk/topics/science…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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tony nog #Revoker
@tony_nog
1) Reality of GE choices & Labour #Brexit policy
Below is the proposed Labour #Brexit policy

So the first thing to say about it is it's fundamentally a lie, dishonest from beginning to end, and is likely a pro #Brexit policy

There is no "close relationship to" the SM
2) now of course many of my fellow remainers will be shocked at that statement and will say, quite rightly, that we need to get Labour support to fight #Brexit

That's true, but Labour's position remains dishonest, whether we need them or not
3) firstly, it's clearly nonsense to talk about workers rights & green alignment with the EU because this cannot be protected between governments, a new Tory government could sweep all of that away
Read 9 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
Perché la #Brexit si è oramai avviata verso una possibile catastrofe, perché oramai i due scenari più probabili sono quelli più estremi possibili e perché non bisogna credere alle parole “caute” (secondo alcuni) di Boris Johnson - perché non erano caute. THREAD (IN ITALIAN) 🇬🇧🇪🇺
1. Oggi è stato un giorno importante, anche se passato sotto traccia: prima di tutto, Boris Johnson ha finalmente lanciato la sua campagna per diventare leader dei conservatori e premier. Il suo discorso è stato estremamente importante. E rivelatore. 🇪🇺🇬🇧 #Brexit
2. Innanzitutto: non credete a coloro che dicono oggi “Johnson ha messo il No Deal” (l’uscita del Regno Unito senza accordo dall’Ue, potenzialmente catastrofica, ndr) “all’ultimo posto”. Non è vero. O meglio, non corrisponde a quello che accadrà. Vi spiego perché. 🇬🇧🇪🇺 #Brexit
Read 29 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Final vote share, with changes from 2014 assuming the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor:
Brexit Party 32% +7
Lib Dem 20% +13
Labour 14% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
SNP+PC 5% +1
ChangeUK 3% +3
Ukip 3% (27% last time, but Brexit+Ukip +7 w rounding)
bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cr…
And you know what that means? We have a winner of the sweepstake! The best guess was just 3 %age points out (+2 on Lab, -1 on Green)
Starting with an honourable mention for @John_S_Macleod – a total of 10 points out, but he entered on 1st day, 5 May, so did not have advantage of later opinion polls: Brexit 30%, Lab 15%, Con 10%, Lib Dem 18%, Green 8%, ChUK 3%
Read 7 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/ How might the Brexit Party hit the Conservative Party at a general election?

A short thread detailing figures in today's Telegraph bit.ly/2JHFILd

#EP2019 #EUelections2019
#brexit #brexitparty
2/ With Prime Minister May on her way out, the Brexit Party about to surge & the Conservative Party's future unclear we've run some numbers on how the Brexit Party could hit the Conservatives at a general election
3/ This combines constituency level data on 2017 general election with recent Westminster vote intention polls to estimate the flow of voters to the Brexit Party, giving us median and maximum estimates
Read 17 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Adam Fleming
@adamfleming
#Brexit thoughts this AM. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has a Northern Ireland sub-committee to the Joint Committee and sounds like there's been progress on an arbitration panel for the governance of the treaty = forum to discuss exit from a temporary customs arrangement? (1)
ANOTHER reminder of what @MichelBarnier said about the UK-wide customs idea way back in July. Note the problems he said had to be solved to make it work. europa.eu/rapid/press-re… (2)
And finally, I've now seen FIVE different dates for an extra-special Brexit summit in November. But I've been told that my trip to the German Christmas markets on 1/2 December should be safe! (3
Read 3 tweets

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