As I'll be showing in my upcoming voter file analysis, turnout surges among Dem coalition voters was massive in 2018, but R turnout surged too-evidence of happy Reps, not "disaffected" voters embarrassed by Trump Scandals & family separation policies. As I've said on multiple
occasions, like 2018, 2020 will be the battle of the bases & the side w the best turnout will win. But this idea that Trump/the GOP is advantaged in a turnout scenario, even in lower edu states like WI, is just wrong. There are major metro areas in every state & w them
suburbs. As w Lexington there will be massive turnout surges in these places, and population density strongly favors Ds. Keep in mind, Ds are overcoming pretty large R PVI advantages right now. And in the very same places that Wasserman & Cohn are so bearish on for Ds (MI, PA, WI
D turnout outperformed R turnout in a more hostile environment than presidential cycle turnout: the midterms. This is why Ds were either to beat Scott Walker in WI and avoid competition that cycle in PA and MI. Again, that 2018 environment should be worse for Ds, not better, bc
although Ds did better than they did during normal midterms, they still left plenty of vote on the bench. And before you hit me w the Trump to Dem midterm voters thing- that's about 2% of registered voters you're talking about. We're going to see presidential turnout increase as
much as 10 pts in 2020 over 2016- and not just in CA. Rural turnout is going up- but so is suburban rural, where the vast majority of the country's population resides. The rural population surges are going to keep the election competitive, but its not an advantage in the EC.
It'd be different if we were seeing PA, MI, and WI trending to be more favorable to the GOP, but what we've seen is the opposite.
