At the @LowyInstitute for “An address on China by Tony Abbott”. myaccount.lowyinstitute.org/events/2019-no… So much fun!
Waiting for the man himself.
And here he is! (Sorry for potato-grade imagery.) 
Abbott is running through his legacy with China. The bilateral trade agreement is a highlight. So is the ramp-up of defence spending.
He’s setting this in the context of the older idea that trade would lead to democracy (my paraphrase) “but that was then and this is now”.
He repeats what he says about the massive rise in the middle class in China as the greater build of wealth in history, and that’s good. “I said it because it’s true,” and it was helpful* to do so.
* May not have been the word he used.
* May not have been the word he used.
A warning that Australian universities have become too dependent on the one market, Chinese students. There’s students that could come from elsewhere.
The US-China trade war is less about balance of trade and more about securing technology supply chains. The Huawei ban is just the beginning.
The America of Trump is not the same as the America of JFK, notes Abbott. Indeed.
I’ve missed some soundbites, but he’s clearly heading towards Australia needing to be more self-reliance in defence terms.
“Greens sabotage of resources projects”! Drink!
Cutting immigration and refocusing on migrants who are “employed and paying taxes from day one”! Drink!
“I have very few regrets from my time as PM,” but the biggest regret is that he didn’t move faster to increase the Navy. The build-up is too slow.
Abbott lists the naval strengths of CN and RU. “We need more submarines and we need them now.”
Extended whinge about spending years redesigning subs that will be obsolete by the time they’re built. Why don’t we buy existing French nuke designs? Or if not that, “from our great friends”. We need a Plan B
Having these capabilities isn’t about alliances but about “self-respect”.
We need to be able to dish out damage, including cyber.
We can’t afford to keep being starry-eyed about China, says Abbott.
Abbott actually calls out the idea of questioning Chinese Australian’s loyalties, no more sensible than we should question a Kiwi who still barracks for the All Blacks.
Or imagine that Chinese-Australians would become agents for Australia in China.
In a final burst about the wonder of Western liberal democracies, Abbott says that not having that is not in the DNA of the CCP.
And now the Q&A with @mfullilove.
On risks of offending PRC, which is notably thin-skinned. How would you counsel your successor? “It is not our job to appease unreasonable people.”
Would you do Freedom of Navigation exercises in the South China Sea? “I thought about it when I was PM,” but decided to be careful about being provocative.
We’re back on the submarines. French nukes are again being plugged. What about the Japanese design? Looked good originally but it turns out they’d needs too much rework to deliver quickly, says Abbott.
Lowy Poll said 1/4 of Australians don’t trust Trump to do the right thing in works affairs, 2/3 think he’s made our alliance weaker. Are Australians wrong?
Abbott disagrees about Trump making the alliance weaker. Trump is an “unorthodox” president but he’s the US president we have. Abbott seems less pessimistic than many others.
On Brexit, imagining that Britain’s prosperity relies on the “sclerotic structures of the EU” is ”absolutely crackers“. Staying in the EU would be an ”epic failure“.
He’s previously extolled the virtues of the British Empire, of course.
Abbott says there’s no reason why UK couldn’t just continue unilaterally to recognise EU qualifications and passports etc. (A voluntary EU?)
Abbott now says that the EU is punishing Britain. He talks about the EU as a theological issue and UK leaving is apostasy, “and you know how zealots deal with* apostasy ”.
* May not be the exact word, but it was certainly about zealots and apostasy.
* May not be the exact word, but it was certainly about zealots and apostasy.
Hah. Abbott admits with a laugh that this spur of the moment comment was a mistake.
Abbott would support “targeted sanctions” against China if they cracked down on HK, but also says some of the demonstrations were “over the top” and “anarchic”.
What would be the tipping-point? If non-CCP legislators were blocked. If demonstrators were “spirited away”. (Hasn’t the latter already happened?)
Responding to the Lowy Diplomacy Index from yesterday which put AU’s network well down the list, “A substantial increase in our diplomatic footprint would be good for us and good for everyone.”
Abbott out.
Anyway @LowyInstitute will have the video and podcast of that online tomorrow, I imagine.
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Tony Abbott on China! Earlier today I live-tweeted from the @LowyInstitute event, and here’s that thread on a page. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1199865…
The podcast is up already. “Tony Abbott on China” soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute/… The video will appear tomorrow, I estimate.
The podcast is up already. “Tony Abbott on China” soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute/… The video will appear tomorrow, I estimate.
