The thing about climate change is that its immediate effects over the next decades will be felt differently from one region to another—and the impacts on local populations will in turn be shaped in important ways by existing political-economic arrangements & social inequalities.
This spatial and sociological differentiation of climate change impacts means that local capacities for adaptation will vary between and within regions. As a result, the developmental pathways of different social classes and geographical areas will begin (or continue) to diverge.
I'm currently reading up on past episodes of climate change to try to understand some of these dynamics a bit better. Two relatively recent episodes stand out: the Medieval Warm Period (c. 950–1250) and the Little Ice Age (coldest c. 1645–1715). Some interesting studies on this👇
1. Historians have long recognized that the Medieval Warm Period was an important factor behind the economic expansions of China and Western Europe in the Late Middle Ages. This book demonstrates that the same episode of climate change had the opposite effect in the Middle East: 
The whole region was convulsed by famines, mass migrations and revolts. Baghdad and Constantinople, until then the most economically advanced and culturally vibrant cities in the world, began to decline. Egypt rebounded, but Italian merchants took control over the Levant trade.
Three key lessons here: a) the Middle East was particularly vulnerable to global temperature rises, even a mild one; b) the resultant mass migrations destabilized the entire region; c) powerful players from less—or positively—affected areas actively sought to capitalize on this.
2. Similarly, a number of historians have identified climate change as a driving force behind the "general crisis of the 17th century." Yet this book shows how Dutch merchants not only withstood the worst effects of the Little Ice Age, but actively turned them to their advantage:
While it would be far too simplistic to attribute the "Little Divergence" b/w Northern & Southern Europe in the 17th century to climate change alone (the Iberian powers had their own internal weaknesses, etc.), the book does demonstrate that Dutch capitalism was highly adaptable.
Such capitalist adaptation will fuel similar divergences in our own lifetimes, as lands in the higher latitudes open up to agriculture and resource exploitation, while others suffer from rising sea levels, desertification, forest fires, melting glaciers, riverine flooding, etc.
Within regions, too, some groups will win where others lose: e.g. the livelihoods of indigenous peoples living in the higher latitudes will be severely affected by melting ice, collapsing ecosystems, etc., even as disaster capitalists swoop in to exploit new "opportunities."
These conflicts will emerge irrespective of how rapidly we reduce emissions. Significant warming is already baked into the atmosphere; we're witnessing the effects today. Even if we somehow manage to limit the global temp. rise to 1.5°C, there will be widespread destabilization.
The likely outcome of the resultant divergences will be an intensification of conflict—domestically, between social classes, and internationally, between rival powers. This is exactly what happened during previous episodes of climate change in the Late Middle Ages & 17th century.
This is why it's so important to see climate change not "just" as an ecological problem outside of the realm of social relations. Yes, we are in the midst of an ecocidal mass extermination event. But this catastrophe will be experienced by humans primarily as a *social* crisis.
Obviously, this makes the need for mitigation even more pressing. But either way, our lives will be shaped in fundamental and unfathomable ways by existential struggles over and due to climate change. There's no escaping this reality. You cannot be neutral in a climate emergency.
The upshot is that things will never go back to the way they were before. The long 20th century is over. The general crisis of the 21st is only just beginning. There will be major conflicts. Whether we like it or not, our societies will be irremediably transformed in the process.
The only question is whether we take ownership over that process of social transformation, or let the coming catastrophe determine our future. This upcoming election cycle may well be the last chance—at least in the UK and US—to set things right before they spiral out of control.
I can't vote in the UK elections, but if you can, please do yourself and all of us a favor: #VoteLabour. Not because Corbyn will magically fix this crisis for us—but because he's the kind of leader we need on our side as the struggle for the future takes on a whole new dimension.
