A short thread on complexity and replacement focusing on the US China situation. We use mental models to help us operate in the world. We know to have coffee in the morning. This autopilot nature simplifies tasks and makes operating more efficient. It can also in intellectual 1/n
Operation lead us to fall back on unsatisfactory answers to remain 1 or 2 dimensional when the reality is multidimensional. This framework infects the public debate about US China events. The answer all too often regardless the question is "But Trump....". I like Taleb here 2/n
In that we too often personalize success or failure and attribute much too much to skill or hard work and not nearly enough to luck. Falling back on one answer for everything has made the debate unidimensional that fails to account for many forces and pressures. 3/n
I think it is perfectly fair to criticize the Trump administration. There are things I would strongly disagree with. I wouldn't have pulled out of TPP. I believe the WTO is important despite its enormous problems and would take a different approach. However, using "but Trump" 4/n
Grossly simplifies any understanding of the real depth of complexity and nature of the problem we are dealing with. This leads to the second problem of replacement. As I have said for sometime, take the concept of Presidential Wins Above Replacement (PWAR) and apply it here. 5/n
Would another President be able achieve fundamentally different outcomes? In most every focused on China, there is little evidence to support this idea. Let's take one example. There is this popular idea that if the Trump administration worked more with allies they would 6/n
Readily agree to confront China. There is almost no evidence to support this idea but yet it is amazingly popular. EU has a long history of dealing actively with Russia, Iran, and others with overwhelming evidence about their activities even yielding on human rights issues 7/n
EU has basically not invested in defense issues for literally decades and even now with overwhelming evidence of Chinese activities, EU has done little more than shrug. This is an idea with almost no factual support despite its incredible popularity. Could the Trump admin 8/n
Do some things better there, sure. Would EU countries be lining up to challenge China? Get real. The world and events and how we analyze these issues is a lot more complex than one answer for everything. Done.
